From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Thanks to everyone who participated in last week’s mystery chart.

We questioned whether it was a rounding top reversal pattern – in which case we’d be looking for a breakdown.

Or, if it was actually a failed breakdown - and we all know what tends to follow those patterns…

The responses we received were mixed. But there were plenty of bulls who wanted to be long against the former lows and bet on a swift reaction higher.

That’s pretty much the camp we were in too. We recently wrote about all of the whipsaw action we’ve been witnessing.

We said the next critical piece of information we’d be looking for was whether or not these patterns would see some real follow-through and confirmation.

Fast forward a week or so, and we definitely have our answer.

So let’s talk about it, and more importantly, what it means for risk assets.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

In today’s Commodity Report, we zoomed out to our monthly charts to reconnect with the primary trend. This exercise really allows us to tune out the noise on the weekly and daily charts.

As we were reviewing our charts, there was one recurring theme that kept popping up...

Pullbacks and retests.

The CRB Index retested its breakout zone near the 2018 highs ~206. 

Crude oil broke back below a 13-year downtrend line only to reclaim it in recent sessions. 

Iron ore fell right back to check in on its 2013 highs. 

And even palladium, the one bright spot in the precious metals space, pulled back to a six-year trendline. 

But guess what? Just like we’ve recently seen in many of the weakest areas in other asset classes, buyers dug in at these key levels.  

Of all these retests, one that stood out most was Uranium. 

Let’s take a look.

Here’s the monthly candlestick chart of the Uranium ETF $URA:...

Once again this month, I’m going to share info on positions that were closed in the month of August. As a reminder, our exit plans are always laid out ahead of time in each trade idea we publish. In every case, the exits mentioned below were all in accordance with the plans as laid out.

As we head towards September expiration, we have three open positions remaining with expiring September options that need our attention. Most of our delta-neutral premium-selling plays worked out in August, which makes sense considering the slow markets we just endured. Let's dive in.

Positions with September options that need monitoring:

This is the video recording of September 3rd 2021 Weekly Jam Session with Sean McLaughlin.

This is the video recording of our September 3, 2021, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

Here's the thing.

There are going to be scams and bubbles on wall street. Humans and money are the necessary ingredients to create them.

We know that going in.

I keep being told that some of these growth stocks are in bubbles. Or that some of these Crypto Currencies are Scams.

My point is, So what?

What if some of them are bubbles or scams?

Why is that our problem?

This week, Nifty Financial Services broke out to claim an all-time high after forming a six-month base. This sector has been taking a breather for some time now, but we are finally able to see signs of improvement.

Across the world, when strong market rallies come through, they come in unison with Financials. So if this current rally has to continue, we need the support of this sector. Are we going to get that though? Let's see what the charts are saying.

Here is Nifty Financial Services on a monthly timeframe. We do see a resolution of the trend. And prior to that, did you notice something interesting? Something we like to see in particular?

The price was consolidating above the Fibonacci level. That's a good sign. Always!

So now that we have this resolution in trend, the next level we're tracking is 23,350.

Keep in mind, this is a MONTHLY chart. Hence, think 23,350 in the months ahead, not weeks.

We wanted to see if we found any specific high correlation points between...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Mixed signals have been the rule rather than the exception since the market peaked in early February.

The major stock indexes have continued to print record highs while breadth has deteriorated beneath the surface, creating several bearish divergences. 

Some stocks have gone up and some stocks have gone down. But the reality is that most stocks have gone nowhere.

The same is true for commodities.

We’ve noticed pockets of strength in base metals, livestock, and softs. But the majority of commodities have remained range-bound...

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Tuesday September 7th @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Tuesday evening:

This is the video recording of the September 2nd Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets

09/02/21 2PM ET

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge 

Last week, we pointed out that some US stocks are going up, but most are not.

The S&P 500 and the other US large-cap indexes have continued to grind to new highs all year, completely unphased by any of the deterioration in breadth beneath the surface.

But, when looking at the global stage, things are different… 

In this post, we’ll look at the current state of market breadth around the globe and discuss whether internals are supporting the new highs in many international indexes. 

It's always a worrying sign when price is making new highs at the index level with a lack of confirmation from internals. But that simply isn’t the case for ex-US equities these days. 

In fact, it’s just the opposite, as we’re seeing our breadth metrics support and confirm the recent price action on a global scale. 

Here we’re looking at the percentage of developed and emerging markets above their 50-day moving averages:

...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

According to Charles Darwin, you cannot make observations without some kind of underlying theory. And if you have any theories about financial markets, you understand thinking about what could or should happen with your investments.  

These concepts can be useful if they help us prepare for what is happening in the markets. But they can also impede or obscure reality.

We can observe and project all we want -- so long as we don't get distracted by the what could and what should that we lose sight of what is. 

I don't see this as an argument in favor of always being bullish or a warning about the risks of needing to be proven right. Instead, it's an encouragement to agnostically acknowledge and operate within the market as it is rather than as we wish it would be.

It’s about pursuing the opportunities that are before us even when they are unexpected. 

Especially when they are unexpected.