I'm in Miami this week, where I grew up, visiting family and I'm feeling nostalgic.
So I wanted to share a chart that I've kept with me for a long long time. I even used the same Stockcharts.com chart, that I originally annotated a handful of cycles ago, so you can see just how long I've had this one with me.
We're looking at the percentage of stocks on the NYSE that are above their 200 day moving average.
The idea here is that we are NOT interested in buying the indexes on their way down below 20% of constituents above their 200 day.
The goal during these times is to buy them on the way back up.
I've been having this debate with some of the world's top portfolio managers and strategists for over the past 2 decades.
Some of these arguments have even gotten pretty heated throughout these cycles. I remember one private back and forth during the late 2018 period where the strategist was pounding the table about the 20% level, while I was much more focused on the 15% mark.
On Wednesday, the United States announced new tariffs against dozens of countries. This set off a wave of selling pressure, which appears to have no end in sight.
It sure is acting like it. I'm very impressed with how Bitcoin has held in this week. Yes, it's down for the week like everything else. But the damage relative to tech stocks is minor.
Feels like now might be a good time to wade in with a mildly bullish bet.
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
Here’s this week’s list:
*Click table to enlarge view
We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.
What's not selling off as much as you'd think it would be?
These are the types of questions I like to ask during environments like this.
I've seen this many times before. I can tell you that the assets showing relative strength in this market will likely be the leaders during the next recovery.
In the meantime, below overhead supply is still the key theme right now, particularly for U.S. equities.
It has been since the Dow and S&P500 lost their key levels and were unable to reclaim them. Remember the Nasdaq100...
We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.
However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!
With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.
Welcome to TheJunior Hall of Famers.
This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.
There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.