I'll be back from a nice family vacation later today and will be LIVE on The Morning Show Friday morning.
Miami is fantastic this time of year. I highly recommend a good vacation, if that's something that you can afford to do.
There was a time in my life that I couldn't afford this kind of thing, so it makes me appreciate it so much more. Many of you already understand this. Some of you will one day.
I wanted to check in and share a few things I've been thinking about while I've been away this week.
One thing that certainly stands out is just how great it is to stay off twitter while you're way with your family.
If you want to make sure you're a bad father, one way to solidify that is to spend all your time tweeting during family vacations.
I kid. But this is definitely a luxury that I couldn't understand in my younger days.
In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.
When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...
With $VIX showing signs that perhaps yesterday was a blow off top, I'm going to gingerly wade into the premium selling pond with a defined-risk Iron Condor trade on a semiconductor stock that may be entering a wide range of sideways chop.
It's been a great week down in Miami visiting family.
We had our first child in the middle of covid, and then had twins 2 years ago. So traveling hasn't exactly been at the top of the priority list, like it used to be for us before kids.
In fact, this is actually the first time I've come back home to Miami with my entire family, including all 3 kids.
It's been awesome.
Sunday night I got to sneak out after the kids went to bed and met Steve Strazza for sushi at a new spot on Brickell.
I've also hung out with old high school buddies and cousins. I don't get to do these things as much as I used to back in the day.
This morning I wanted to pass along two charts that I think all investors need to keep front and center right now.
These charts, in my opinion, literally define this bull market, and whether or not it's over, like we all keep being told it is.
We call this behavior: "Polarity".
It's when former resistance turns into support. In other words, where there were more sellers than buyers (at the prior cycle's peak), there are now (so far) more buyers that sellers.
We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.
For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.
That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.
We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.
Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.
And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.
The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...
Why? Because tariffs create immediate uncertainty. They slow growth, tighten financial conditions, and drive a flight to safety — all of which are bond bullish in the short term. We’ve seen this playbook before: geopolitical tension or trade stress leads to a bid for duration.
The chart’s not there yet — but it’s starting to shape up. Bonds still have work to do before we can talk new 52-week highs. For $TLT, that means clearing this massive base and getting above 100.40 with some momentum behind it. That’s the line in the sand. Get through that, and the squeeze could start to build.
But here’s the catch — the long-term impact is different.
Tariffs raise input costs. They squeeze supply chains. And they don’t reduce demand — they just make things more expensive. Over time, that feeds into inflation. So while bonds may catch a near-term bid on fears of economic slowdown, the structural risk is higher inflation down the road.
It’s the classic setup: short-term deflationary shock, long-term inflationary shift.
So yes — bonds could break out. But if this pressure...