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The Peso Leads the Charge

November 22, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s time to short the USD. 

Based on the weight of the evidence, our bias for the US dollar has flipped bearish

Our first shot at betting on a weaker dollar was successful, as the EUR/USD hit its target earlier in the month. That’s encouraging!

But it’s important to note most dollar pairs are running into logical levels of support or resistance.

Many of these charts are messy at best.

Except the Mexican peso.

In fact, no currency has stood its ground during the dollar's parabolic advance like MXN.

[PLUS] Weekly Market Perspectives - Macro Stability Offers Support

November 22, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The yield curve is getting a lot of attention right now, and deservedly so. An inversion in the spread between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields has an unblemished record in anticipating recessions. But beyond that suite of indicators, there is actually evidence that macro conditions have stopped deteriorating.      

Why It Matters: Despite a recent lull in day-to-day price swings, 2022 has been one of the most volatile and weakest years for stocks in the past half century. Whether those trends persist into year-end or strong post-midterm election seasonal tendencies have investors feeling less bruised and battered by year-end likely depends on macro conditions. This is not a question of whether conditions are good or bad, but whether they are getting better or worse. Since last month our Macro Health Status report has actually improved. More favorable corporate bond yield momentum and stability in the earnings momentum trend have helped offset the yield...

Bitcoin, Drawdowns, and Dollar-Cost Averaging

November 22, 2022

Back in June, we published a report assessing the asymmetric opportunity to dollar-cost average into Bitcoin.

We concluded that mass liquidations driving Bitcoin back to levels last seen in 2017 represented a favorable opportunity for crypto investors to begin scaling into long-term spot positions.

In the almost exactly five months since then, Bitcoin has continued to creep lower, nearing 15,000. This price action validates the DCA strategy, and it looks even more favorable for long-term crypto investors.

Let's revisit the underpinnings of the strategy in light of recent history.

List of Uptrends Keeps Getting Longer

November 22, 2022

This doesn't have to be complicated.

Is the list of stocks and sectors in uptrends getting longer or is it getting shorter?

Are we seeing more stocks breaking down to new lows, or fewer?

If you can count, then you know the answer.

The question is, are you even willing to count?

LPLA, TMCI Insiders Get Active

November 22, 2022

The largest insider transaction on today’s list is a $17.9 million purchase by Patrick G. Ryan, the CEO of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings $RYAN.

Ryan is a titan of the insurance industry, as he formerly founded and served as chairman and CEO of Aon Insurance $AON for over 40 years.