The yield curve is getting a lot of attention right now, and deservedly so. An inversion in the spread between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields has an unblemished record in anticipating recessions. But beyond that suite of indicators, there is actually evidence that macro conditions have stopped deteriorating.
Why It Matters: Despite a recent lull in day-to-day price swings, 2022 has been one of the most volatile and weakest years for stocks in the past half century. Whether those trends persist into year-end or strong post-midterm election seasonal tendencies have investors feeling less bruised and battered by year-end likely depends on macro conditions. This is not a question of whether conditions are good or bad, but whether they are getting better or worse. Since last month our Macro Health Status report has actually improved. More favorable corporate bond yield momentum and stability in the earnings momentum trend have helped offset the yield...
Back in June, we published a report assessing the asymmetric opportunity to dollar-cost average into Bitcoin.
We concluded that mass liquidations driving Bitcoin back to levels last seen in 2017 represented a favorable opportunity for crypto investors to begin scaling into long-term spot positions.
In the almost exactly five months since then, Bitcoin has continued to creep lower, nearing 15,000. This price action validates the DCA strategy, and it looks even more favorable for long-term crypto investors.
Let's revisit the underpinnings of the strategy in light of recent history.