Look, I don't know. I just follow Price. They are all just letters and numbers to me. If it trades, it's liquid, and there's a good technical setup -- that's all I need.
It just so happens that this particular company is engaged in creating Chinese internet content. Ok.
But man oh man do I like the potential reward-to-risk setup here so let's get straight to the point...
The Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread was unchanged last week, remaining just beneath the level that in the past has signaled full embrace of equities and the opportunity for sustained stock market strength.
Why It Matters: Excessive optimism can signal elevated risks for equities, but since 2015, virtually all of the net gains for the S&P 500 have come when II bulls have exceeded bears by 18% or more. For the past two weeks the spread has been stuck at 16.9%. The absence of bulls and a sustained re-building in optimism over the past year have been a headwind for stocks. The shift from excessive pessimism to elevated optimism is typically when stocks do their best, but this cycle investors have been slow to embrace rally attempts. With stocks strong out of the gate to start 2023, the lack of optimism is notable. If 2023 is not going to follow the path of 2022, investor attitudes about stocks will need to change.
In this week’s Sentiment Report we take a closer look at...
The strong negative correlation between stocks and the US Dollar has been consistent since 2016.
When the Dollar is weak, stocks rip. End of story.
Look at how well stocks did in the 4th quarter while the US Dollar Index had its first 3 straight months of losses since the end of Covid, which if you recall sparked the greatest 52-week period for returns in the history of the stock market.
I still think it's important to focus on the Dollar, so here are some potential levels of future interest:
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.