We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

It’s easy to follow a trading plan when the price action is moving our way. We feel like geniuses.

Look at me! I’m so smart! The stock market is doing exactly what I planned for it to do! Let’s go car shopping!

But how do I feel if the price action goes the other way?

Assuming I’ve put a trading plan together that accounts for both the possibility of being right AND the possibility of being wrong, why should I feel any different when the price goes the wrong way?

What’s the point of putting together a detailed trading plan if I later exit the position following the first price move in the opposite direction I hoped for?

Why go through all that effort?

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We closed January, the first month of the year.

And it's a positive start for 2023.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Both our Risk On Index and our Risk On and Risk Off (RO/RO) Ratio have climbed to their highest levels since early last year and in the process crossed back above key levels that provided support during 2021 but were violated as conditions deteriorated in 2022.

Why It Matters: After an unprecedented combination of volatility and weakness in 2022, we are looking for evidence that the strength that has been seen in January marks a sustainable departure from last year and not just more of the same. There is still work to be done from a longer-term trend perspective and macro questions linger. Unlike the rallies that emerged and faded in 2022, however, this year’s gains are being accompanied by more appetite for risk. As long as the Risk On index and the RO/RO ratio are showing improvement (and that improvement is being confirmed elsewhere) it is probably premature to lean against the strength we have seen. That being said, not all opportunities are created equally....

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

It's a market of stocks.

People forget that.

They choose to obsess over every tick in the S&P500 or Nasdaq instead of recognizing what's happening among the actual components of those indexes.

As it turns out, this has become one of our competitive advantages.

If you're wondering why we tend to be ahead of the curve on changes in major trends, I would point to this.

Most people don't have the time (or are too lazy) to sit there and count how many stocks are going up vs how many are going down.

This is it.

When people ask us what's been happening in the world of crypto, this is the chart we show them.

Bitcoin -- and crypto more generally -- has been a big nothingburger for over a year. Especially with Bitcoin trading below its prior cycle highs, there was absolutely nothing to be done in this asset class.

But that all changed a few weeks ago.

The largest insider buy on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by CD&R Boulder Holdings LP.

The firm revealed a purchase of approximately $6 million worth of shares in Beacon Roofing Supply $BECN.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market is following through from yesterday's action, and we're gapping lower this morning.

I'm watching support on $SPY at 398.30.

I think about thinking quite a bit.

Maybe it's because I've read too many Annie Duke books.

But as much as I love Annie's work, it's the whole behavioral finance thing that I'm obsessed over.

I can't get enough of it.

To name a few of my favorites, Dr. Brett Steenbarger, Denise Shull, Daniel Crosby, ...

It's the weekly Gold Rush!

While Gold futures digest overhead supply, strength broadens across the metals space.

Check it out...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Plenty of gold bugs have Krugerrands buried in their backyard or basement –  if not secured in a safety deposit box at their local bank.

It’s no wonder gold falls under the “end-of-the-world” category of assets.

Regardless, gold prices can also rise with risk assets.

I raise this point not only as an important reminder but because it’s pivotal to understanding our bullish thesis for precious metals.

It’s a metals story….