Technology stocks have been quite the laggard for some time. In fact, the Large-cap Technology Index ($XLK) is actually down since mid-July.
Sector Rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market. How many times have you heard me say that?
And this cycle is no different. They used to tell me that it was only the Tech stocks that were driving this bull market, and nothing else what's working.
Here we are with the S&P500 hitting new all-time highs literally every single month, and Technology stocks are actually down since July.
Relative to the benchmark in crypto (Bitcoin), Ethereum has trended straight down for the last two and a half years.
If the ETHBTC ratio was a chart of a company's stock versus the S&P 500, shareholders would question the CEO's ability to deliver value.
And I think this trend of Ethereum underperforming continues.
UNLESS, the Ethereum / Solana ratio can get back above these lows.
Thinking out loud, you know what would be absolutely hilarious?
If this was in the fact the bottom.
Just like how energy bottomed and commodities finally began outperforming stocks when Crude went negative, imagine if this trend of Solana outperformance ended on the President launching a Solana memecoin.
Honestly, it makes sense symbolically.
I just need to see this trend reverse. And in order for that to happen, the ETHSOL ratio needs to reclaim these lows.
And until it does, I think there are better opportunities in crypto outside Ethereum.
But it’s not just crypto where opportunities are appearing. Retail stocks are catching my attention, and there’s no one better to break it all down than JC...
In today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza and I discuss what feels like the birth of a new leg higher for this ongoing, but recently struggling bull market.
And while I was lamenting the performance of $AAPL lately, Steve showed me the mirror opposite: $AMZN.
Watch this video to see how we arrived at today's trade, and see the details below:
Here's the Play:
I like buying an $AMZN June 250/300 Bull Call Spread for an approximately $9.65 net debit. This means I'll buy the June 250 calls and sell an equal amount of the 300 calls. And this debit I pay today represents the most I can lose if I'm dead wrong:
Amazon has earnings coming up on Thursday, February 6th. I'm mindful of this, in fact, I think it could be the catalyst that shoots this stock higher. But if I'm wrong, my risks are defined to the debit I paid.
For risk management purposes, I'll exit this spread if either one of the following conditions is met:
$AMZN sees a closing price below $215 at any time during my hold. Or,
As precious metal investors, it's paramount to rotate between the metals themselves and mining companies to maximize our long-term gains.
The miners have historically treated shareholders poorly, but sometimes, it pays handsomely to own them.
Last week, we outlined a key level of interest in one of our favorite intermarket ratios. Based on this chart, we believe now is the time to buy the miners.
But it's not just the miners that've rewarded us for being long. The futures contracts are also trending higher, and we're looking to buy more on strength.
Gold futures resolved another continuation pattern last week:
Donald Trump gets inaugurated today as the next president of the United States.
This comes after a historic republican landslide that betting markets had absolutely correct going into the election.
Anyone who thought it was 4 guys in a room manipulating the markets were actually just hoping that was the case, because they didn't like what the betting markets were saying.
Tough shit.
You ignored the market and it cost you.
Bitcoin is making new all-time highs this morning as the first Publicly Pro-Crypto President in history is about to take office.
You don't have to like the guy. In fact, you can hate Trump. Or love him. It doesn't matter when it comes to how we're going to profit from it.
And that's what this is all about.
If you let your politics influence your decision making in the market, you're an extremist. And there's no room for extremism in turning a profit.
Separate the two, or it will not end well. That I promise you.
Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended January 3, 2025. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.
Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’s...