Twitter has been a disaster of a stock for the majority of its time as a public company, but recent price action suggests a tradable bottom may be in on an absolute and relative basis.
Before getting into the price action, it's worth acknowledging the continued deterioration in sentiment regarding this stock in recent months. I've been negative on the stock for a while, but with the downside targets I outlined here being met, I don't see a reason to be overly pessimistic on the stock at current levels. With price action improving in the face of another poor earnings report and another slew of analyst downgrades, it appears, at least anecdotally, that sentiment is overly bearish in this name.
With sentiment suggesting a neutral/bullish stance is appropriate, let's see what price is indicating.
Regardless of how strong their brand may be, Disney continues to remain correlated to the S&P 500, as most stocks do during a bear market, and remains in a downtrend. Despite the neutral to bearish structural picture, the stock looks to be setting up for a tactical bounce in the coming weeks.
Structurally the stock remains range bound between 90 and the all-time highs at 122. During this recent selloff, prices retested the uptrend line from the 2009 lows, which also corresponded with the 38.2% retracement of the 2011-2015 rally. I don't believe in triple bottoms, and although this is the third time testing the $90 level, current evidence suggests the stock can stage a counter-trend rally before continuing to the downside.
Over the next month I will be giving several technical analysis presentations on the east coast and all of you are invited to join me. Some of you have seen me give these before, so just know that they are all different. I try and tailor the educational content to the current market environment that is obviously always evolving. Here are the upcoming dates and details:
In every market there are leaders and there are laggards. This is the case in both bull and bear markets. Regardless of the environment, some stocks and sectors will simply outperform others. Sometimes, this relative performance tells us a lot about the overall risk-appetite for institutional investors and in which direction they are headed.
In honor of Superbowl 50, we created a countdown of what we consider to be the most important 50 charts in the world. These include U.S. Stocks and Sectors, International Indexes, Currencies, Commodities, Interest Rate Markets and Global Intermarket relationships. Some of these are more actionable than others, but collectively I think they truly tell the story of global market risk, or risk aversion for that matter.
Members of All Star Charts get access to all of this information 24/7, so we would like to invite you to start a 30-Day Risk Free Trial and Join us to see if our community is right for you. We have received incredible feedback from our members and will continue to improve the platform.
Every month we host a conference call for All Star Charts Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
This month's Conference Call will be held Thursday February 11, 2016 at 7PM ET
In this month's premium members conference call, we will discuss the following topics:
- Can we still get a counter-trend rally before getting down to 1720 in the S&P500?
- A deep dive look at the Bond Market and how to profit from it
- Why Emerging Markets will keep outperforming
- Crude Oil and Gold - What do we do with these now?
- Amazon has been a great short, but what do we do with these momentum stocks today?
As always, we'll leave as much time for Q&A as possible.
One of the most valuable tools that we have as market participants is in taking the sum of the parts to help come up with a final conclusion. While we all talk about what the Dow did yesterday or what it’s done year-to-date, it is easy to forget that there are 30 companies driving this popular U.S. stock market benchmark. By going through each of these 30 stocks, we can get a better feel for the market itself rather than just analyzing the performance of the index. To me, it’s the combination of the two that seems to be the best approach.
All of the 30 Dow Components have just been updated in the Chartbook, and here are my notes on the results: