This weekend I was down in beautiful San Diego for the 3rd annual Trade Ideas Conference. For me, it's not just about the presentation that I give or the panel that I sit on, but the people that I get to meet or see again. That's the great part about our community: everyone's ability to share and learn and recognize that we're all in this together. As we approach the market with our own individual goals and objectives in mind, along the way we pick things up from others that help us adjust and fine tune our strategies regularly over time. My friends at Trade Ideas put on a good show, but it was the engaged audience and interactions with my fellow speakers that really made the weekend great.

Here is the video of my presentation. Shoot us an email to info@allstarcharts.com if you're interested in receiving the slides:

So far, this new corrective phase in U.S. stocks is playing out according to script: Deep down moves, interrupted by gravity-defying bounces that suddenly get saddled with lead weights which drag stocks back down with the fishes. Sorry for the horrible Godfather-inspired mixed metaphor.

In this type of environment, we want to be patient with our risk-defined positions when they go against us, yet aggressive when they go our way. This one simple mindshift will be what separates the winners in a bear market from the pretenders.

We laid out our first list of stocks we want to be short in a correction back on October 12. So far, this list is treating us well. The next name that we're ready to tackle is Cisco $CSCO.

Frank Cappelleri is one of my favorite guys to listen to. He brings a unique perspective because of a lot of his experience on Wall Street. Early in his career he spent time working at Smith Barney with legends Alan Shaw and Louise Yamada. He then experienced his first bear market after March 2000 working with former Lehman trader John Schlitz. Frank has been at Instinet, which is owned by Nomura, for a long time and is constantly in touch with some of the smartest guys in the business. I think he's as good a technician as anyone and in this episode he shows us just that. We discuss the market implications of a rising US Dollar and why he no longer has a target above 3050 for the S&P500. I was really looking forward to this conversation and we're lucky we get to pick his brain for a bit. I hope you enjoy this one!

A US stock market crash is a real possibility. 

We have not been in an environment where this was on the table for a long time. For those of you who know me, I think I've proven that I'm not one of these end of the world guys. We can probably all agree that I call it like I see it and have no directional bias. I walk around daily proud to not care whether the market doubles or gets cut in half. We just want to be on the right side of the trend.

The risk for most of the month has been skewed in favor of the bears. As breadth has gotten worse and momentum has confirmed downside pressure, I believe there is unlimited risk in the market right now. Nothing is out of the question.

In my opinion, we are in a stock market environment where a crash is entirely possible. Now, just because it is possible doesn’t mean it will come. I think of it like the city of Miami, where I grew up, during hurricane season. Just because it’s the season doesn’t guarantee that a storm will come, but it is absolutely...

For our subscribers I've discussed what we need to be seeing in terms of market breadth before stepping in and trading stocks in India on the long side (here, here, here, and here) and today's action suggests we may be on our way to getting that opportunity in the next week or two.

Notice anything different the last couple weeks?

Unless you've been on an African safari during the entire month of October, you've probably noticed the dramatic shift in market tone. What has been working for the majority of the year has stopped working. The low-volatility, bullish setups playbook has been rendered ineffective in just a couple short weeks. As many of us were recently reminded, and many of you might be learning now for the first time, when market regimes change -- the process is usually swift, messy, and confusing.

If you're a long-only swing trader in this market environment, good luck. You're probably in for a wild ride.

Chicago is one of my favorite cities in the country. November 7-9th I'll be out there with the team meeting with clients and giving presentations. You're invited to join us Thursday Nov 8th at the Chicago Board of Trade for a Free event hosted by the CMT Association.

Here are the details of the event:

The biggest rallies happen in corrective or bear markets. They are nice, but often temporary. Stay nimble, my Trader friends.

— Sean McLaughlin 📈 (@chicagosean) October 16, 2018

I posted this on twitter today as the latest round of dip buyers were tripping all over themselves to buy up any and all perceived bargains being offered by Mr. Market. While the cumulative bounce for the past three trading days has been impressive, I've traded through too many corrections and bear markets to be tricked this easily into thinking the storm has fully passed.

Instead, I'm welcoming bounces like this because it more easily reveals the weakest names that are struggling to rebound. The stocks that haven't bounced or are struggling in relative terms to rise with their brethren, these are the names we want to press into on the short side. They are the ones likely to lead the carnage on the next leg down.

Next up on our target list: Intel $INTC.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Marijuana stocks have never been that HIGH on our list of areas to look at given their smaller market-cap, average trading volume, and short price history often inhibits larger players from participating in them, however, the strong performance as of late has drum up interest in the space and increased the number of stocks that meet our criteria to analyze them. This post will be a quick update on what we're seeing from a price perspective.

This past weekend was the 5th annual Traders4ACause Conference in Las Vegas. It was a lot of fun and a bunch of us helped raise money for a list of great causes. On Saturday I gave a presentation about what I'm currently seeing in the markets, including Stocks, Bonds and Currencies. Sunday I sat on a panel with Joe Fahmy and Paul Singh and we just chatted about the markets, what we're seeing out there and shared some stories about the things we've learned over the years. We recorded the conversation so here it is in full. I encourage everyone to check out the Traders4ACause site and donate even if you could not attend. I...

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

This past weekend we wrote updates for our US and India subscribers, discussing stock market breadth around the globe. When I do these types of updates, we often get asked why we look at international markets both in their local currency terms AND as US-listed ETFs. Why not one or the other? In this quick post we'll walk through our thought process behind it.