From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Let everyone grumble over the Japanese yen.

I get it. The yen was cast as the villain decades ago, and something or someone must take the blame for the VIX hitting 65 earlier this week.

While I prefer to point my finger at the preceding low-volatility environment, the November election, and potential rate cuts, the yen certainly played a part. 

But the real question isn’t who, what, when, where, or why. 

Instead, every investor wants to know…Was that it? 

Is the selloff over?

I think the worst is behind us. 

Here’s why…

Check out the USD/JPY chart with a 200-day simple moving average in bright blue (with the percentage above or below the long-term average in the lower pane):

In many ways the yen carry trade is a play on interest rates.

Notice the USD/JPY rocketed higher as the current hiking cycle began, rising with the widening spread between the Japan and US overnight rates. Powell’s war on inflation and Japan’s Yield Curve...

A surprising outcome for some of my defined-risk long delta trades this week is that my losses weren’t as pronounced as I would’ve expected given the vicious sell-off we’ve seen in many tech names.

Why?

One thing that isn’t often discussed about being long options premium when expressing bullish or bearish bets is that owning long options (calls or puts) also means we’re long volatility.

In situations like these where we saw VIX briefly with a 65-handle, the rapid rise in options premiums put a floor in many of the calls I had long positions in. So while many bullish positions in my portfolio were losing money, the losses were rather pedestrian relative to what others who were holding long stock or futures positions were likely experiencing.

It’s not a win, but it felt like one this week.

We discuss this and a whole lot more in this week’s Options Jam Session:

BlackRock just filed for a "Nasdaq Top 30" Stocks" ETF.

That's the top

This is the company that runs the iShares ETFs.

NOW is when they want to launch a vehicle for investors to buy ONLY the top 30 Nasdaq stocks?

Now?

Where was this 10 years ago?

To me, this type of sentiment is just further evidence that Technology has peaked as a percentage of total market cap in the stock market.

This sort of top-heavy hype is confirming what price is already suggesting.

Look at Technology hitting new 10-month lows today relative to the S&P500:

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to XHB position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

The stock market likely has a couple of aftershocks left in it. But if the worst is over, I have to believe this is a great opportunity to buy the dip in some names that will be beneficiaries of the AI boom.

And there are few bigger and well-positioned names than Microsoft.

This market environment still demands that we define our risks and we're going to leverage elevated volatility in a way you might not expect to express our bet.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to IBB position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

What do you do when the stock market sh*t hits the fan?

Be honest.

Do you tend to freak out and panic into quick exits? (if so, you aren’t alone!)

Do you recoil in fear and call it “zen detachment?” (there are more of these than you know!)

Do you get busy reading everything you can, talking to everyone you can, and watching all the financial TV you can to try to figure out why this volatility is happening?

Do you stoically go down with the ship turning your trades into investments?

We all have our different ways of dealing with the mental volatility that stock market volatility stokes in all of us. These past couple of weeks have revealed new things to ourselves.

The feeling of gratitude that I have this morning is overwhelming.

So I just wanted to take a moment to say Thank You.

These tapes are a perfect time to hunt for leadership. More often than not, when the tide inevitably shifts back to a buyer-driven market, the assets that showed strength in a weak tape continue to lead.

While on this recent correction the selling has been indiscriminate, we're spending the next week or two to assess any relative leaders.

Two days into a recovery, we've seen the DePIN and memecoin space show some leadership. Today's note covers a few tokens within these groups leading this strength, as well as providing a brief market update.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new position today.
2. Adjustment to QQQ position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

In order to have a bear market, or a correction of any kind, the prices of stocks need to fall.

That's just math.

But you know what hasn't happened? We really haven't seen the new lows list blowing up at all.

You would think that Monday would have seen a lot of new 52-week lows, considering the VIX practically tripled overnight, for the first time in the history of the stock market.