The All Star Charts team has been drawing attention to financials and banks recently, putting forth the idea that the broader markets likely will not rally without banks participating:
We’re in the camp that Interest Rates in the US and Globally are set to mean-revert over the coming weeks and months, and if we’re right, that should benefit Equities as an asset class and Financials due to the rotation they’ve seen over the past several months.
And since we're believers that the market is going higher from here, logic dictates we should be looking for opportunities in the banks.
ASC published a piece on Regional Banks earlier in the week highlighting a handful of names to keep an eye on for upside should certain levels be pierced. Yesterday, we had our first name pop up and declare it may be ready.
With U.S. Large-cap Indexes breaking out to new all-time highs, many are wondering when, and if, the Small-caps are ever going to catch up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P500 and Nasdaq100 have all taken out former highs and are currently in uncharted territory. The Mid-caps, Small-caps and Micro-caps, however, are still all well below their 2018 highs.
While we like to pride ourselves in looking at more charts per week than almost anyone on earth, I get a lot of value from regularly speaking to clients and colleagues. Tuesday was one of those days that I found myself on the phone speaking with people around the world. One theme that came up multiple times was the underperformance in Small-cap stocks throughout the late 90s. It's something we've seen before. U.S. Large-cap stocks can do very very well even with small-caps underperforming, like they have since last year.
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
Since early July stocks in India have come under more selling pressure, with the Mid-Caps and Small-Cap indices falling roughly 10% and the large-cap Nifty 50 falling about 6%.
This has exacerbated the relative underperformance of India versus other Emerging Markets which it had been outperforming up until late May.
Prices in many of the major indices are now approaching critical levels of support, begging the question will buyers will step in again to defend these levels or is more selling ahead?
Financials are a big focus of ours right now. We can make a strong case that this is the most important sector in America. Traditionally, Industrials are the most positively correlated with the S&P500 and Technology is the largest sector by market cap. But we don't have bull markets without bank stocks. That's the way this works.
When going through my chartbooks this weekend one chart stood out to me, highlighting a theme we've been pointing out to our Institutional Clients that's worth mentioning again.
There's an opportunity developing out on the farm -- everyone's favorite farming machinery (and apparel?) company is setting up for a big harvest. While investors should take notice, opportunistic trader hunters like us have spotted a way to get in/out with a quick profitable trade before volatile weather appears on the horizon to spoil all our hard work.
While updating this Chartbooks this weekend there were a few stocks that we've spoken about in the past, but I wanted to follow up on given they're near actionable levels.
Several shorts, a few longs, and one to keep on your radar.
In this episode of The Money Game, Phil and I talk about the Availability Heuristic and why we are more likely to invest in certain types of companies depending on where we live. This is a really interesting phenomenon that makes a lot of sense. I'm lucky that I get to avoid this bias more than others simply because of the process I use to perform my analysis. It's a solution to a problem I didn't even know I had! This is a short one that I think is worth a listen just to learn a little bit more about yourself.
Remember last year, and the year before that, and the year before that, when Amazon would just rip higher all the time? That uptrend came to an abrupt halt last Fall, and $AMZN came tumbling down like many other stocks around the globe. After almost a year of consolidation, it appears as though Amazon shares are ready to get going again.
Remember when Outrage Twitter was running wild with conspiracy theories about Chipotle poisoning its customers and the business was doomed? That was fun. You know who had more fun? Long term investors who turned off the "news" and stayed the course.
Earnings are coming up that may serve as a catalyst to launch the next leg higher in shares of $CMG.
There is potential for a 10-to-1 payout if we nail it and $CMG has a monster gap along the way to get us to and through our price target. But our aims are a bit more modest. We're simply looking to capture some of the barbacoa in the middle.