For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
Do you see how stocks and gold can make new highs at the same time? Who said they couldn't? Why does it have to be one or the other? The current market environment is a great reminder of this. Don't forget it.
So? Should we expect Gold and Silver to keep going?
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I discuss the Intermarket Relationships that help identify the next direction for US Interest Rates. These assets include Regional Bank Stocks, Utilities, Real Estate Investment Trusts, Copper, Gold and TIPS among others. Which way are Rates heading next?
With earnings season in full swing, unique opportunities with options often spring up.
It's pretty common for the prices paid for options to increase leading up to earnings announcements. It's a classic example of the battle of fear and greed playing out. On one hand you've got nervous shareholders purchasing insurance to protect themselves from any serious adverse price action, bidding the prices of puts higher. On the other hand, you've got shark speculators looking to participate in a sharp reaction to make a quick buck in either direction, adding further buying pressure to both puts and calls.
The astute options participant can use this battle to leverage into his own vision of the big picture.
I don't make it my primary business to go against the trend. Sure, it can be pretty satisfying and certainly pays well to nail a turn in a major trend. But it's a tricky business that has left behind a graveyard of wannabe Heroes.
But every so often the stars align, risk is clearly defined, and supporting evidence suggests a turn may be at hand.
We've been watching some of the Energy ETFs we track most of this year for potential mean-reversion opportunities on the long side.
We recently discussed for our Institutional Clients an opportunity in the Small-Cap Energy ETF (PSCE), which rallied 17.50% from its 2018 lows before reversing back to those levels again.
The main issue in Energy remains that there appears to be an attractive mean reversion opportunity at the ETF level, but when we drill down into individual stocks there aren't many clean setups...making it difficult to identify what the main drivers of this move higher would be.
Let's take a look.
For the purpose of this exercise, we're going to look at Oil Services ETF (OIH) because its risk management level is the cleanest of the Energy subsectors.
JC and I are generally on the same page about a lot of things, but this week our brains seem to be very in sync as we're writing about the same topics with a slightly different spin on each subject.
