I can't think of a better time to talk about Fibonacci Extensions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average right now is fighting to break through an important cluster of extensions that stem from the last two epic peaks we had in the market: 2000 and 2007. A breakout above 27,000 could spark a new cyclical bull market that we believe falls within the context of an ongoing structural bull market. In other words, this is a more intermediate-term breakout (years) while structurally (decades) we have already been in a bull market since arguably 2013 or even 2016.
In this video I talk about 2 key extensions: 261.8% and 423.6% which is exactly where the Dow stopped going up in early 2018. Was 17 months enough time at these levels before we can move on? Let's discuss:
This is one of my favorite things to do: Forget everything that happened in the first half of the year and start from scratch. It doesn't matter what we did or how we felt in early 2019. It's irrelevant. We're moving forward. This is my Q3 2019 Playbook.
In last night's All Star Options Conference call, JC laid out a case for why interest rates look to be at an inflection point -- the takeaway being that a big move is likely to happen from here. The problem is, we're just as likely to rise as we are to fall. What to do?
While this type of directional indecision is likely to give pause to a straight equities player, we options traders can position ourselves to profit in either direction without having to pick one!
Stocks are set to rip higher at the open today, which makes it tough to buy into some bullish opportunities here as they all will be running away from us. However, there is one name setting up where today's enthusiasm should help us push through some minor resistance and get us targeting new all-time highs that were last seen back in September.
We've been bearish the Micro/Small/Mid-Caps relative to Large and Mega-Caps from a structural perspective for most of the last year, however, last week's rally confirmed the conditions we look to indicate potential outperformance in the coming weeks and months.
Monthly charts force us to take a step back and identify the direction of the primary trend. By erring in the direction of these trends, we are increasing our probabilities of success. Markets trend. That's why Technical Analysis works. This process at the end of each month is arguably the most valuable part of all the work I do. I can tell you that from the bottom of my heart.
One that definitely stands out here is the Dow Jones Industrial Average going out at new all-time monthly closing highs. This is the highest monthly close in the history of the stock market:
Another interesting one is Gold going out at new 6-year highs:
One question that I get a lot comes from new investors, "Hey JC, I'm starting to get into the market for the first time, any advice?"
For me, I'm convinced you have to get kicked in the stomach, at least once, but likely even more than that, to finally understand the importance of Risk Management. But if you can somehow figure out a way to just take my word for it, and eliminate your emotionally driven decisions completely, I believe it puts you way ahead of 99% of market participants around the world.
If broader markets are going to continue higher, we've got to expect the banks to participate and even lead. If that's the case, we're limiting our risk and betting on one of the bluest of the Blue Chips breaking into blue skies.
