Last week I posted the mystery chartpicturedbelow to see what people were thinking once they removed the biases of knowing the security name, timeframe, or etc. and had only price to rely on.
Most people were on the same page as I am, thinking this is a structural trend change that we want to be buying, not selling. A few people were hesitant and wanted to see more before getting involved, but very few, if any, were sellers.
If you ask 100 people what Technical Analysis is, you might get 100 different answers. In this video I try to explain what Technical Analysis means to me. There are a lot of misconceptions about what it is and what it isn't. I hope I can clear some of that up in this short video!
Every week I go through my chartbooks and think about what should be highlighted as our "Chart of The Week", something that speaks to a theme that people need to know about.
Sometimes I have trouble choosing just one chart, but this week it's a no brainer in my opinion.
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
What do we know about new all-time highs? We know they're not a characteristic of a downtrend.
I often get that guy that comes to me and says, "Well every new downtrend must start from a new high". Yes, and that must be a great way to go through life.
You see, markets trend. That's why Technical Analysis works. That's why this is so valuable. Because if you can recognize the direction of the underlying trend, you're already way ahead of the pack. The likelihood for a trend to continue in its path is exponentially higher that for it to reverse. A 4-year old can recognize if a chart is going up, down or sideways. It's the adults that have more trouble with this.
As I went through all my weekly charts this weekend, I noticed an interesting underlying theme: New Highs.
One of the most powerfully bullish patterns that I know involves an instrument which gaps higher on explosive volume, builds on those gains for a day or so, then spends the next week or two consolidating those gains on declining volume. This price action tires out the fast money that entered the game on the breakout and attracts opportunistic bears looking for a reversion back to the mean. The chart pattern begins to resemble a coiled spring. And when it Pops!? -- the next move can be powerfully higher and sustainable.
The Dow Transports are the talk of the town due to their lack of trend on an absolute basis and their underperformance relative to the Dow Industrials, so I want to take a quick look and see if there are any themes we can take advantage of within its subsectors.
One of the more compelling opportunities in the All Star Charts Q3 Playbook centered around the Rails sector. Several stocks there are setting up for big moves, and with an accommodating economy, I don't see how rail stocks won't start participating soon.
The weakness in Consumer Goods we've been talking about since March and April continues, so today we want to look at a short opportunity in Godrej Consumer Products, which makes up roughly 5.50% of the Nifty Fast Moving Consumer Goods Index.
