It's my favorite exercise each month. There is nothing else I do throughout my entire process that provides as much value as my Monthly Chart Review. Here's what stood out to me this month:
Let's start with Papa Dow. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone nowhere for 20 months. Flat for over a year and a half:
It's that time of the cycle where we begin to evaluate our open positions that are soon expiring. We had a number of September expiration trades that have already closed -- either because their profit target was achieved ($XLB $XLE) or their stop loss level was violated ($AVGO $CSX $HFC $XLY), but we still have four open positions that require our attention as the calendar transitions to September.
We'll talk more about these in our upcoming monthly All Star Options conference call, but I'll give you a head start on our current thinking here:
Tuesday's Mystery Chart is one of my favorite charts right now, so thank you all for your feedback and participation.
Everyone was on the same page here, waiting for a resolution before getting involved. Sometimes nothing is the best answer, that's why it's one of the choices.
Retail ETF XRT is at an interesting level, so in this post we're gonna take a look at its chart and what the internals are suggesting for the sector in the weeks/months ahead.
This could be a major top in the US Stock Market. It could be a historic top like 2007 or 1929, maybe even 1987. This is certainly a possible outcome.
Something else to consider is that betting on these outcomes is rarely a profitable endeavor. They make movies about the heroes who bet heavily on the financial collapse of 2008 and made fortunes. We talk about these fund managers like legends. What they don't make movies about are the infinite number of investors over the years who have bet on such outcomes, and were wrong instead. I guess Hollywood doesn't think those stories will sell.
I understand the bearish thesis for US Stocks. In fact, we always take the other side of our opinions and try to poke wholes in a given theme. We've been in the camp that since most stocks have gone down to sideways over the past 19 months, this is a classic cyclical bear market. It has gone on through both price and time, not just one of the two. I don't care how you slice it, this was a bear market, and possibly still is.
Continuing a theme that we started the week with, we're still on the hunt for attractive long opportunities in the strongest sectors. When markets get choppy and uncertainty about market regime change looms, I seek relative safety in the corners of the market that have continued to hold up well. And since the beginning of August, one of those sectors has been the Medical Devices sector.
And here's one of the names showing signs of a developing breakout.
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
In today's post, I want to outline two "trash to treasure" trade setups that are low probability in nature but offer a ridiculously skewed reward/risk at current levels.
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
