While we wait for the breadth and momentum divergences to develop in the equity markets, we're taking advantage of other markets that offer uncorrelated trade opportunities.

Today, we're looking at Jeera and Crude Palm Oil on the long side.

This is the video recording of the March 2020 Conference Call.

This is the video recording of the March 2020 Conference Call.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it’s a custom index or inverted, who knows!

We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.

You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

We are not seeing any evidence of a bottom for stocks, yet. In these sorts of scenarios we want to see improvements in market breadth and/or bullish momentum divergences start to pile up. We're not seeing any of either.

In times like this, where many stocks, indexes and sectors, are in what we call "no-man's land", it helps to find non-correlated assets to analyze and perhaps invest in.

One thing that does NOT move up and down with the US Stock Market is Natural Gas. Evidence of this lack of correlation can be seen throughout 2019, for example, as Natty Gas got crushed while US Stocks soared. 

In this type of environment, our focus has been on capital preservation as opposed to capital appreciation.

We've gotten a lot of questions about Metals during this time, so this post will review why we've been out and what would get us involved again.

There are a lot people openly talking about the potential for the stock market to close while this coronavirus pandemic plays out.

This is a valid concern.

Naturally, the question becomes: "What happens to any open options positions I have on if expiration happens during a market closure?"

I'll start by saying: this is no ordinary week. But you knew that.

If you are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for all this craziness to subside, that is not a bad idea at all. There is no reason to put our money at risk if we can't get a handle on our own emotions during this highly uncertain time.

That said, for those who are willing to wade into these choppy waters with me -- these insane premiums offer us the ability to sell premium FAR away from current prices. I'll share with you my simple game plan for this week.

Every month I host a Conference Call for members of All Star Charts Pro. From the feedback we get from our readers all over the world, this one feature of our Membership is a fan favorite.

A lot has happened in the past month. You hear things about interest rates getting slashed to zero, viruses impacting stocks all over the world and many things that none of us could have predicted a month ago. However, Technical Analysis gave us the ability to get out of the way and avoid this entire mess. Not only did we want to buy bonds, but we simultaneously wanted to sell stocks!

Today I want to share with you the video of last month's Live Conference Call. I've unlocked it so anyone can watch it, not just Premium Members. I've gotten a lot of requests to do this, even from paid subscribers, because opening it up serves as a great educational resource for the future. We can all learn from this, myself included.

These are the types of markets that are a statisticians dream come true. They get to run all sorts of scans and tests to see how long it's been since volatility did this or the rate of change in the S&P500 did that. To be honest, it's all a bunch of bullshit. The market doesn't care about your stats.

I'm not going to go over all of them because I don't find them very helpful. In fact, I find them incredibly deceiving and, even worse, distracting. I felt that way on the way up with their stupid, "S&P500 hasn't moved 1% in a single day in x amount of days....". Who gives a damn?

Today is no different.

Let's talk about what actually matters.

2750 in the S&P500 was support in the first half of 2019. We closed the week still below that. We might have a slight bullish momentum divergence, but if S&Ps are below 2750, we put this index in the "No-man's land" category:

Risk management has to be our number one focus right now. This is no time to be lazy, hoping, or praying.

Yes, if you're willing to wade in carefully, there can be some great opportunities for premium selling. But even then, we still have to be extra vigilant in protecting our capital.

I bring this up because I received an email from someone recently who didn't follow his rules, and now finds himself severely underwater and wondering what to do next. We've all been there. Something unexpected happens, and now we're like a deer in the headlights too frozen with indecision and unwilling to make any move whatsoever because we're afraid we are going to compound the situation for the worse. It sucks.

Here's the situation my friend finds himself in. Let's learn from this.