In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to ARKK position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

We're only in the market to make money. Let's not forget that.

We're not journalists who have to tell stories about things that may or may not be happening.

We're not Economists trying to identify the next recession.

We don't care about your stories, and we care even less about your economy. As far as I'm concerned, recessions are a choice for a lot of people.

I try to make sure that I fall in that category.

One way we do that is to weigh all the evidence and decide if this is a bull market or a bear market.

And the reason why this is important is for one simple reason: To decide how we want to be spending our time.

Today is Monday. What should I be doing today? That's the question I want to answer.

In other words, should I be spending my time looking for stocks to buy, or should I be spending my time looking for stocks to sell?

That's really what this is all about. You can see exactly...

From the pits of 19th-century speculation to today’s systematic hedge funds, trend following has remained the ultimate trading edge. Here’s why it works—and why it always will.

For centuries, traders have tried to predict markets—chasing news, studying fundamentals, and searching for a perfect formula to outthink the crowd. Meanwhile, the only strategy that actually worked was the simplest one: Follow the trend.

Nobody wanted to believe it. Trend following felt too passive, too reactive. Human nature prefers action, control, and the illusion of certainty. But markets don’t reward ego. They reward discipline.

Trend following wasn’t born in a lab. It wasn’t a theory crafted by economists. It was a survival mechanism.

In the 1900s, the most powerful traders—Gould, Patten, Cutten, Livermore—moved markets through insider knowledge, manipulation, and sheer size. The only way smaller traders survived was by recognizing the trend and riding the moves made by the big players.

This wasn’t...

There's never a dull moment in the market. It's always something.

The mixed messages are a feature, not a bug.

That's just how it's always been. So it's our job to weigh all the evidence and make the best decisions we can make, knowing full well that we have incomplete information.

Today I want to talk about 2 theories that may or may not be playing out, but it's something I'm thinking about. 

First, is this thing about investor sentiment. How is it possible that individual investors in America are the most bearish they've been since the bottom of the last bear market back in 2022?

I think it's because of what they own.

They're not in China, which is making new 3-year highs. 

They're not in...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

Wow what a week to be an investor in stocks.

The broadening of participation all over the world continues. 

Meanwhile, the pessimism is stronger than ever.

I'm noticing the most angry of people are the ones who want stocks to fall because they don't like the Trump and all his buddies. 

But their anger is not the market's concern. If anything, it's just more fuel to drive stocks much higher, which would enrage them even more. 

It's pretty hilarious to watch actually.

Laughing is good for you. But laughing at people who haven't bothered to count and actually see how well stocks are doing, is all the more amusing.

You know, you can dislike Trump, and still recognize how strong this bull market continues to be, and how much stronger it's getting week over week.

Here is one of the most important stock market indexes in the world. I would argue that after the S&P500, Dow and Nasdaq, this one is right there behind it, and arguably right along there with it in the same category of importance.

EFA represents developed markets outside of North America. So think a ton of European stocks, United Kingdom, Japan and...

Today I'm going to share a little trick that I like to use to help put the current market volatility into perspective.

The math is like this. I take the value of the VIX and divide by 16. And that's what the market is pricing in for a normal daily move.

For example, if the VIX is at 24, then I would expect a 1.5% move in the S&P500 each day.

So if the VIX is at 16, then I would expect a 1% move.

If the VIX is at 32, then I would expect a 2% move.

Simple.

Now, many people wonder why it's 16, and that's where we get way above my paygrade. If you don't understand how the math around options works, don't worry. No one else does either.

I'm not even joking. Options math is next level impossible. Just ask any of the best options traders. They'll be the first to tell you.

The 16 number I believe has something to do with the square root of the number of trading days in a year, but I'm confident there's more to it than that.

Also, for you statistics majors, I believe there is technically like a 67% probability of these results, or something along those lines.

So keep in mind that The Rule of 16 is just a back of...

Stock market bulls have been watching the homies like hawks. 

It's a vital industry right now.

Alfonso recently wrote about the Home Construction ETF $ITB breaking to new lows relative to its defensive peer group, the Real Estate ETF $IYR.

He said, "This ratio has historically been a leading indicator for the broader market. During prior cycles, you can see clear divergences where ITB/IYR tops or bottoms ahead of major turns in the S&P 500." 

See the chart for yourself. The data doesn't lie. 

If the equity bull market in the United States is going to continue, this group cannot complete a massive top.

Here's the setup that everyone is watching 👇

As you can see, the iShares U.S. Home Construction Index $ITB has carved out a prolonged potential distribution pattern. 

The index...

Geez, a stock falls back to levels not seen since *gasp! * 5 weeks ago and the implied volatility spikes?

Feels like nervous bulls are getting a little overzealous with their put purchases. Let's fade 'em.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to IGV position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!