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A Mess, Not A Crash

April 21, 2021

I get asked a lot about why I don't think this is the beginning of a more severe correction.

We've been in the camp that the stock market is a hot mess, particularly in the U.S.

The indexes don't tell the whole story. OK, maybe the Nasdaq does a little...

And we went over all of that on last night's Live Video Conference Call.

But one chart that stands out to me that continues to suggest that...

[PLUS] Weekly Perspectives - Portfolio Management

April 21, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

  • Adaptive exposure can stay in harmony with market environment  
  • Risk tolerances are dynamic, moving with the market
  • Indicators & investors operate across multiple timeframes

The word perspective has multiple definitions. The dictionary we have at our house lists eight. For me, the most relevant of those have to do with seeing the interrelationships of relevant facts and ideas as well as  those that deal with distant time frames & horizons.

When it comes to investing, keeping perspective is the difference between success  and failure. A successful approach to portfolio management can be built on a sturdy three-legged stool of perspective focusing on:

  1. Market Environment
  2. Investor Risk Tolerance
  3. Portfolio Time Horizon

We need to keep in mind how we are making sense of incoming information, how our preferences are changing in light of that information, and how far out in the future we are looking when it comes to how we are positioning our...

[Options] Straight as an Arrow

April 21, 2021

Readers of All Star Charts research are no doubt familiar with the team's focus on relative strength. They are often comparing sectors against each other to uncover where hidden strength (or weakness) is hiding out. It's one thing to see how a stock or a sector is performing on absolute -- dollar and cents -- terms. But seeing how investors favor one sector versus another offers important insight into how the marketplace is perceiving risk and opportunity.

This analysis often forms the bedrock of our best discoveries.

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Is the Dollar Running Out of Steam?

April 21, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Last week, we highlighted the USD testing a critical level against the Rand. This is a theme we've been seeing a lot in a variety of USD crosses recently and will discuss more in a post later this week.

We’re finally beginning to see some resolutions from these key levels, and they're revealing some very valuable information regarding the Dollar’s strength and the likely future direction for the $DXY Index itself.

In this post, we'll take a look at some examples of this theme by showcasing two forex pairs from Northern Europe that are currently breaking down at major inflection points against the USD.

But before diving in, let's set the stage a bit...

What are some of the major developments in G-10 pairs that are driving the US Dollar Index right now?

  • EUR/USD appears to be finding support as it retests former resistance at its 12-year downtrend line from above.
  • GBP/USD...

The All Star Momentum Scan

April 21, 2021

We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.

All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. This time around, we have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to generate great returns.

While we go through our lists of sectors and stocks on a weekly basis, we thought of launching a product that would highlight the names that are the strongest performers in our universe and those that are primed for an explosive move.

Just like The Outperformers scan, this is a list of stocks belonging to the sectors that display relative strength in the market at any given point in time. Since sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market, we will be ahead of the curve before the gears keep shifting.

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

April 20, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaway: The heat has been turned up on our sentiment indicators, and optimism is back to a full boil as we see indexes in the US and around the world move to new highs. While it takes bulls to have a bull market, sentiment running too far ahead of reality can be a recipe for some churn. While breadth remains strong and economic & earnings data comes in ahead of expectations, investor optimism may well be rewarded. If breadth falters in a meaningful way and/or incoming data starts to fall short of expectations, the overheated sentiment backdrop would pose an increased burn risk. Investors who can’t tolerate the heat might want to step out of the kitchen for a breath of fresh air. 

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: New Highs Across the Board 

Large-cap US Indexes registered new, all-time highs last week as breadth slowly rebounds after a period of digestion. Optimism may be running hot, but at least it’s producing bull markets....

Mystery Chart (04-20-2021)

April 20, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Check out our latest Mystery Chart!

What we do here is take a chart that’s captured our attention, and remove the x and y-axes as well as any other labels that could help identify it.

This chart can be of any security, in any asset class, on any timeframe. Sometimes it’s an absolute price chart, other times it’s on a relative basis.

It might be a ratio, a custom index, or maybe the price is inverted. It could be all three!

The point is, when we aren’t able to recognize what’s in front of us, we put aside any biases we may have and scrutinize it objectively.

While you can try to guess the chart, the point is to make a decision…

So let us know what it is… Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

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Under The Hood (Chart Summit 2021 Edition)

April 20, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

This weekend was the 5th Annual Chart Summit. It was a blast (as always) and all the footage will be archived and available for anyone to rewatch soon!

My presentation this weekend was about all the various "bottoms-up" scans we run here at All Star Charts... including Under The Hood, of course.

Therefore, I wanted to spice things up for viewers and share some additional names outside of the usual bi-weekly report.

So I summarized two bonus setups during the conference (which you can watch in the videos, available soon) and I'll outline them again below.

Let's dive right in.

* Bonus Long Setups From Chart Summit Presentation *

Chop Chop Chop....

April 19, 2021

The messy market environment continues.

It's been happening for months.

Underneath the surface, we're seeing rotation among sectors and the overwhelming theme, when you look through as many charts as we do, continues to be: MESSY.

There's little or no evidence yet that this is the beginning of a larger more substantial sell-off. In fact, the data coming in continues to support that these rangebound markets are coming within the context of a longer-term bull market for stocks.

The, "This is Year 2 of a Bull Market" theme appears to still be playing out.

The world of stocks is not the S&P500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average. Look beyond that and what will you find?

...

[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes & Breadth Trends

April 19, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Broad market strength gets front page treatment. German Bund yields pointing the way higher for US Treasury yields. Economic activity is booming, holding true to the post-recession historical pattern.

The Energy sector’s pullback from its March peak has finally caught up to it in our relative strength rankings. Even though Energy remains the top-performing sector in 2021, it plummeted from third to ninth in this week’s rankings. If it is unable to get back in gear in short order, it’s time in the leadership group could come to a swift conclusion. While Energy fell in the rankings, Materials and Real Estate both climbed higher. Industrials and Financials have been laggards of late, but remain in a leadership position overall. Our industry group heat map shows mid-caps leading, with large-caps improving and small-caps deteriorating.

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (04-19-2021)

April 19, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

The same themes that we've been pounding the table on more or less continue to drive primary trends.

In recent weeks, we've seen some rotation back into Large and Mega-Caps, which has propelled the major indices to new highs, while SMIDs are still resiliently consolidating. While the list of negative data points has grown, it's still not close to anything that warrants concern.

Developed Markets, particularly European equities, are resolving higher across the board -- a move confirmed by strong breadth and bullish internals. In short, we continue to see strong equity market...