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How To Find the Trade

May 2, 2024

Last night was my favorite thing that we do around here.

We had our LIVE Monthly Charts Strategy Session for Premium Members of ASC.

This hour-long, 150-chart Monthly ritual allows us to take a step back, zoom out, and identify the most important primary trends across markets.

There is nothing we do here that adds as much value to my process than preparing for this call.

Premium Members can watch the replay here and download all the slides.

If you're not a Premium Member yet, you can fix that here quickly.

The bottom line is this:

Markets are a mess. They've been a mess. And this year is very different than last year.

Look at the Equally-weighted S&P500 and Nasdaq100.

While these are certainly good overall gauges for the health of the US Stock market, always, in this particular environment they are even more representative of what's going on out there.

All Star Charts Premium

The Short Report (05-01-2024)

May 1, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

All Star Charts Premium

The Dollar-Yen: Today’s FOMC Wild Card

May 1, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The Japanese government isn’t playing games.

Currency crisis or not, Tokyo is willing to defend the yen in the open market. It's proven this multiple times over the past three years, and today’s FOMC-related volatility will likely test its resolve. 

Considering previous yen-buying interventions, the dollar, interest rates, and the dollar-yen pair could be headed lower in the coming months.

Before we dive into the yen, here's a quick update on the action in the euro and pound.

The euro retested its breakdown level from earlier this month, forming a bear flag:

A close below 1.06 completes the flag pattern and sets a rough downside objective of 1.0450.

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Gold Hold

May 1, 2024

I'm mindful that coming into this afternoon's Fed meeting lots can change following whatever is said after 2pm ET.

That said, there's a pretty compelling opportunity to sell some premium in the gold space, at strikes that are comfortably far away, increasing our odds of success.

Technology: Still The Worst Sector

May 1, 2024

I know I've already said it a lot over the past few months, but for those people in the back who may not be able to hear so well...

THIS YEAR IS NOT ANYTHING LIKE LAST YEAR.

The strategies that worked so well throughout 2023 are not the ones working this year.

Last year's leaders are some of the worst stocks in 2024.

The leaders in 2024, in many cases, were some of the worst sectors in 2023.

It's not bad or good. Better or worse. It's just different.

The better you get at adapting to the current environment, the fewer headaches you're going to have.

I'm 42 years old. I've been doing this for over 2 decades.

I have 3 kids.

Do you think I need more headaches at this point in my life? Or fewer?

And so that's why we've adapted our strategies to the current market, instead of trying to go to the beach in the winter, or wear a raincoat on a beautiful sunny day, like many investors like to do because they haven't bothered to check the weather.

So speaking of checking the weather...

COO Miller Buys 10,000 GSHD Shares

May 1, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The biggest insider buy on today's list comes via two Form 4 filings by Mark Miller, president and COO of Goosehead Insurance Inc $GSHD.

Miller reported the acquisition of 10,000 GSHD shares, equivalent to $580,650.

Look Up!

April 30, 2024

My family and I recently embarked on a memorable 4-day journey to Redwoods National & State Parks in the breathtakingly rugged landscape of extreme Northern California.

Words alone cannot do justice to the majesty of this region, nor can mere photographs fully encapsulate its grandeur. To truly grasp its magnificence, one must stand amidst the towering coastal redwood trees, with the rugged shoreline of Northern California stretching out before them, enveloped in the sights, sounds, and scents of one of the most remarkable forests on Earth.

Even the gentle rain that occasionally graced our adventure served to enhance rather than dampen our experience, intensifying the assault on our senses in the most fulfilling manner imaginable.

As we spent hours traversing the labyrinthine trails, venturing deep into the heart of the woods, a recurring reminder echoed among us: "Don't forget to look up!"