From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

A few weeks ago, we put out what you could call a “lower conviction” trade idea in Gold Miners. The reason we did this was simple and boiled down to two things: 1. The risk/reward profile; and 2. The primary trend. The prior was simply too good to ignore as price tested a formidable level of former resistance turned support. And this was taking place within the context of an underlying uptrend. Fast forward to today, and that trade has worked out beautifully (see lower pane).

What’s interesting is that Treasury Bonds are now setting up with a very similar chart formation after grinding steadily back down toward the 2016 and 2019 highs, where prices are now. The question that remains is whether buyers dig in and defend this key former resistance level near 113. They have so far… And just like GDX, the risk/reward here is too good to pass up and...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

You can consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes as well as discuss the most important themes and developments taking place in markets all around the world.

While the weight of the evidence remains in the bull's favor, we continue to see more data arrive that suggests the environment could be shifting toward one that is less conducive to risk assets, at least over shorter timeframes.

In fact, we'd argue that bears have more talking points today than they've had at any time over the trailing year. With each passing week, data continues to suggest a more cautionary approach is appropriate...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. We can then put these near-term developments into the context of the big picture and glean insights into the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

• Procyclical Commodities gave back some of their recent gains this week.
  • Copper was down over 2.34%. However, the primary trend remains intact with momentum in a bullish regime.
  • Lumber was the hardest hit this week, dropping over 7% reversing its extreme momentum reading from last week to 64 this week.
• New short-term lows across the board in many US equity indexes, from the S&P to Dow Utilities, and even SMIDs...

What do you want from me?

Do you want me to tell you that it's just all rainbows and butterflies?

Is that why you come here?

Or is it because you know I don't give a shit, and I'm just going to give it to you straight every time?

So here's the deal.

We had a heck of a run. That was one of the best 1-year returns of all time.

What more do you want?

Give it a rest. Let Year 2 play out and see if it's like all those others. So far it's exactly like them.

We've seen a ton of relative strength out of the Value areas of the market: Financials, Natural Resources, Industrials...

Those are the areas where we've wanted to be as money has rotated out of Growth.

But now our upside objectives are getting hit all over the place. We laid all that out 2 weeks ago in great detail.

And now the Dow Jones...

This week we're looking at a long setup in the Fertilizer space. We've noticed a growing trend in this sector and have covered more stocks here.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

Over the past few days as the market continued to churn sideways, we witnessed a set of stocks doing well as a group. As sector rotation continues to play out, we see different groups play the game of musical chairs as they move in and out of strong and weak zones.

Fertilizer stocks seemed to have gotten activated recently and there a few names here that we've been tracking for some time.

Let's take a look at the individual names:

The first one here is GSFC. Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals. What we see here is a three-year base breakout with the price moving past its long-term resistance of 114. As the overhead supply has been absorbed at these levels, the price is now ready to move higher in the next leg of the rally.

The indicator has been in the bullish momentum territory, staying rather close to this zone during interim corrections as well.

We are bullish above the level of 114 with a target near 167.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Lumber futures have been on an absolute tear since last spring. The vertical but volatile price action off last year's lows is something for the history books.

After trading down to 250 in late March of 2020, Lumber has since shot back above 1,600, where it trades today. It’s no wonder social media is full of people flaunting their wealth with stacks of timber. 

But we have to ask... is it time for a pullback? Is this rally overdone here? 

Let’s take a deeper look and discuss why we believe the logical move for Lumber over the short term is sideways... or even lower.

Here’s the chart. Look at that face ripper - up nearly 7x in just over a year!

Lumber futures just barely sliced through our target of 1,636 last week, yet have fallen back below that level in recent sessions.

This action...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The one chart is actually two charts this week. On the left is the S&P 500 and the percentage of stocks in that index that are above their 200-day average (90%). On the right is the NASDAQ Composite and the percentage of stocks in that index that are above their 200-day average (50%). The contrast could hardly be more stark. Even as weakness has been seen in some of the largest sectors (like Technology), the S&P 500 is being supported by ongoing strength in cyclical values areas. The NASDAQ has little to no exposure to those sectors that are doing the best right now and is bearing the brunt of speculative excesses being unwound (the collapse in equity call options is evidence of this shift).

Reporter: "Why do you rob banks?"

Willie Sutton: "Because that's where the money is."

True 'nuff. And the same could probably be said of insurance companies, no?

With this in mind, we've got a mid-cap dividend paying insurance company with a beautiful trend thats looking like it wants more.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

I planted most of the vegetables for the garden over the past couple of weeks. Seeds and seedlings. Neat rows and clustered groups. Into the raised beds they went.  

I don't know what the day to day (or week to week) fluctuations in the weather will be. But I do know that it is (finally) Spring. Planting as the air temperature rises and our daylight hours expand increases the likelihood of a bountiful garden later this summer. Leafy greens (kale, arugula, chard) were the first into the soil. They can withstand cooler temperatures than the cucumbers, peppers and tomatoes.

As a gardener, I have some understanding of the underlying trends and conditions that guide the seasons. Plant too soon and a late frost will kill off tender seedlings. Plant too late and the summer heat will sap the strength of plants without well-developed root systems. 

It's about knowing the growing environment, managing temperature risks and finding opportunities to increase vegetable production.

Some might dismiss this as a farmer’s market timing. I call it prudent.

These are the registration details for our live monthly conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Conference Call will be held on Monday May 24th at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday night: