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[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

January 17, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

It’s Time To Look Outside The US

The same areas of the market that are starting to drive the rotation from growth to value are also likely to drive rotation between US and ex-US stocks. The reason for this is simple. International stocks tend to have a high relative weighting toward value, while the US has one of the highest allocations to tech and growth of any country. While we’re still seeing very little evidence of a trend reversal in our ratio charts of international vs US stocks, we are starting to see more and more breakouts from international indexes and ETFs on absolute terms. Fresh legs higher from these diversified global indexes and individual country ETFs could be what sparks a turnaround in the relative trends. We want to keep a close eye on value-heavy countries such as Canada, Australia, and various areas of developed Europe. One area that is standing out recently is the Eurozone and the UK in...

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

January 17, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

  • Our macro universe was flat this week as 53% of our list closed higher with a median return of 0.06%.
  • Oil $CL was the winner this week, closing with a 6.24% gain.
  • The biggest loser was Dow Jones Transports $DJT, with a weekly loss of -2.24%.
  • There was a 4% gain in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 55%.
  • 30% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs, 17% made new 13...

Waiting Patiently

January 17, 2022

Over the last few weeks, our patient approach to the market following December's volatility has continued to pay off.

In last week's report, we outlined how we're viewing this recent dip as yet another low-conviction dip-buy, and why we anticipate messy and whipsaw-prone price action before a tradable bottom is found.

There's little to update on since that report.

Spot flows have been neither bullish nor bearish, but neutral. We need to see demand come in from investors to form a tradable bottom. The market appears to be in oversold conditions, making this a logical place for this to happen.

Elevated leverage in the derivative markets has made futures the dominant force on price action. There are early signs of a short squeeze developing, but we need to see investor demand support it.

Apart from a few exceptions, we're sitting out most of the action in the alts for now.

[Premium] Trade Of The Week

January 17, 2022

The market has been different over the past two weeks compared to the past two months. We're seeing a resumption in trend in several sectors and today Fertilizers are in focus.

Let's take a look at the trade for this week!

Small-caps Did Great Last Year

January 17, 2022

Some people think that Small-cap stocks underperformed last year.

But those are probably the ones left holding the bag in small-cap growth stocks.

You see, Small-cap Value stocks did great!

One for the record books, in fact.

All Star Charts Premium

[Premium] Q1 2022 Playbook

January 16, 2022

This is our ASC Research Q1 2022 Playbook.

With the current market environment giving us many mixed messages, what better time to dive in and see what's happening underneath the surface?

  • Stocks (International & U.S.)
  • U.S. Sectors & Industries
  • Market Breadth & Sentiment
  • Commodities
  • Currencies
  • Intermarket Analysis
  • Crypto Currencies
  • New Trade Ideas
  • Overall Strategy

It's Your Growth Problem, Not Mine

January 15, 2022

Have you noticed the sense of entitlement from investors left holding the bag in these growth stocks?

Why is that our problem?

The rest of the planet doesn't care about your obsession with U.S. growth stocks. It's a much bigger world out there.

Oh, you fell for that narrative about a female rock star portfolio manager?

Too bad.

Oh, you decided to buy stocks that historically do poorly in rising rate environments, during a rising rate environment?

Too bad.

All Star Charts Premium

Commodities Turn Up the Heat

January 14, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Commodities are making a fresh leg higher, and energy is leading the way.

Crude oil is back above our risk level around 76. And the energy-heavy CRB Index is at its highest level in more than seven years.

But it’s not just energy contracts that are working right now. We’re seeing strength across all areas of the commodity complex.

This broadening participation is evident in our equal-weight commodity index, which just hit new highs after consolidating for the past two quarters.

This chart shows the CRB Index and our equal-weight index side by side:

Both are printing new highs after some consolidation and corrective action last year. You can see the bullish continuation pattern very clearly in the equal-weight index.

Also, notice how both of these charts are sporting strong...