We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
These are the registration details for our live monthly conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts India.
This month’s Conference Call will be held on Wednesday, January 19th at 7 PM IST. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since our launch.
These are the registration details for our live mid-month conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.
Our next Live Call will be held on Tuesday January 18th at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
Two weeks into 2022 and EEM (Emerging Markets) has a 500 basis point YTD lead over SPY (S&P 500). Emerging markets are up more than 2% and the S&P 500 is down more than 2%. Short-term charts can make this look like a significant shift in leadership. While it may turn into that, at this point it looks like a premature conclusion. My guess is that we are in the early stages of a shift away from the US and toward global equity market leadership, including emerging markets. But two weeks of outperformance after a decade of relative weakness is not much of a signal.
If we look at the history, all of the net gains in EEM over the past nearly two decades have come when the ratio between EEM and SPY has been above its 200-day average. The ratio is rising and the 200-day average is falling, so there is convergence. But there has not yet been a crossover. That’s the signal I want to see before getting too excited about the strength we are seeing from EEM.
It’s certainly something to watch, but we want to watch with a bit of perspective.
It was Bucks vs Warriors in Milwaukee last night. Giannis vs Curry. A marquee January matchup for the NBA.
The game got away from Golden State early and they were down 48-24 with about 8 minutes to go in the first half. When the final buzzer sounded, it was a 118-99 Bucks win. Curry, who has been averaging 35 minutes per game this season, was only in for 29 last night. In fact, no starter on either team played more than 30 minutes.
Turns out a blowout in January is a great time for players (even the stars) to get some rest. It's a long season and when the must-win playoff games come around, coaches are going to want their players as fresh as possible.
One of the processes we absolutely love to follow is the Top/Down Analysis approach. In this process, we identify the larger trend and then zoom in and analyse the characteristics that stand out. We look at the asset classes, identify the strongest one, and then deep dive. Next, we look at sectors and identify the pockets of outperformance. Finally, we take a look at an actionable trade that suits our risk and reward parameters.
