From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

Following some explosive moves earlier in the year, the past few weeks have been full of sideways action for commodities.

Energy contracts are correcting. Copper continues to consolidate. And gold is chopping around in the middle of its multi-year range.

But when it comes to commodities, there’s always an opportunity right around the corner. 

Last week, we pointed out the burgeoning strength in natural gas futures despite the corrective action in crude oil and its derivatives.

Today, we’re going to outline a few developing setups with a focus on ags.

Let’s dive in!

First up are corn futures:

Since last November, we’ve had our eyes on the grain markets, and corn has been one of our most successful trades. It completed a larger basing...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The Fed was all over the news this week, going out of its way to telegraph to the market its intention to pursue an accelerated pace of rate hikes. Fed funds futures seem to be getting the message. A month ago, futures were priced for year-end fed funds rate of 1.50 - 1.75%. That is now up to between 2.50% - 3.00%. In past accelerated tightening cycles, both stocks and commodities were strong into the initial rate hike. Their paths, however, soon diverged. Commodities remained strong and on average didn’t peak until a year and a half after rate hikes began. Stocks have tended to struggle during these tightening cycles, working sideways to lower for an extended period of time. Every cycle has its own unique characteristics, but if history is any guide it makes sense to favor commodities over stocks when the Fed is rapidly tightening monetary policy.

This is the video recording of our April 8, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

This week I joined Tyler Wood and David Lundgren on Fill The Gap, the official podcast of the CMT Association.

Being asked to come on to this one was a real honor for me.

Since day 1 I've been a huge fan of the Association and the members who came before me. I can tell you honestly that I don't know where I would be today if it wasn't for the CMT Association and more importantly, the community of members all over the world.

It truly has been one of the best experiences of my entire life and for that I will forever be grateful.

In this conversation talk about how I became a Technician, the first books I started reading, who my mentors were, starting a business, becoming a Wine Sommelier and the new technical tools and strategies that technicians are now able to incorporate into Crypto and other digital assets.

This was a lot of fun.

Hope you enjoy!

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The largest insider transaction on today's list is a Form 4 filing by Durable Capital Partners LP.

After disclosing a purchase of roughly $25 million in Duolingo Inc $DUOL, the firm now owns 9% of the language-learning platform.

Are you noticing?

Energy stocks continue to push up against new highs.

The Integrated names, Oil Services, the Explorers & Producers.

They're all still at or near new 52-week highs.

The kicker? It's all happening with Crude Oil in the midst of a 26% drawdown:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

Benchmark yields have moved in a vertical line higher since the beginning of March. This isn't just the case in the US; we're seeing similar action all across the globe.

But as rates rally higher and higher, more and more classic intermarket relationships are failing to confirm the move.

Yes, commodities and commodity-related stocks remain resilient, and bonds are an absolute dumpster fire.

Most other assets we would expect to do well in a rising rate environment simply aren’t. This is especially true for the banks!

Meanwhile, those groups that we'd expect to underperform in this kind of environment, such as utilities and other defensive stocks, are actually outperforming.

All of this speaks to risk-aversion, not risk-seeking behavior.

Let’s take a look at some of our favorite intermarket ratios and put these bearish divergences into perspective....

This is the video recording of the April 7th Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

04/07/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

I got a message last night that Ned Davis is retiring from the eponymous firm he launched more than four decades ago. Turns out, he’s not quite retiring – but he is stepping back. Either way, it’s a good time to reflect on his impact on the industry. 

His data-driven, evidence-based approach to the market can seem obvious to those of us who are following the trail he blazed. But it would have been less obvious at a time when data access and computing power were more limited than they are now. It was revolutionary then, and is the gold-standard today.

More than ever, the industry is filled with those who want to tell stories about what should happen without making space for feedback about whether that is happening. Many want to sit still and find ways to have their priors confirmed, rather than having a disciplined and objective approach toward weighing the evidence. Being data-driven is more than just doing a little math and including a decimal place. Knowing what you want the answer to be before you even ask the question is not evidence-based, it’s narrative-driven.

We discussed this at length on Tuesday night (re-watch here).

Large-cap Healthcare.

And there's an element of defense to it as well. Let's not get it twisted:

You see how large-cap healthcare does when stocks are under pressure?

Pretty good huh?

Look at the size of some of these bases:

It’s been a wild few weeks of insider activity.

Today, we have another big splash, brought to us by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A.

The investment conglomerate filed both a Form 3 and a Form 4 last night, revealing a brand new position worth roughly $4.2 billion in HP Inc $HPQ.