This is the video recording of the April 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• The Major U.S. Indexes and Current Technical Analysis
• Commodities making multi-year highs vs Stocks
• Our Sentiment Composite Indicator shows excess Pessimism
• Value Stocks continue to lead vs Growth Stocks
• Energy Stocks and Commodities Trades
• Agriculture Stocks and Commodities
• Base Metals & Precious Metals
• The US Dollar vs US Dollar Index are very different
• Global Markets: Pockets of Strength & Weakness
• Bonds Yields and Yield Curves
• What To Do With These Beat Up Growth Stocks
• Bitcoin Correlations & New Crypto Trade Ideas

We alluded to the strong move that we're observing in the Fertilizers and Chemicals space. Today we're here to take a look at one such stock that just broke out above its resistance and looks good to go!

Read on to know more.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to our latest Under the Hood column, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended April 15, 2022. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our Minor Leaguers column.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Watch this video for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

They’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• Our macro universe was red again this week, as 66% of our list closed lower with a median return of -0.63%.
• This week, crude Oil $CL was the winner, closing with an 8.84% gain.
• The biggest loser was Lumber $LB, with a weekly loss of -6.41%.
• There was a 5% drop in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 23%.
• 15% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs, 9% made new 13-...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Tech Weighs Heavy on US Stocks

US equities have outperformed their global counterparts for the better part of the last decade. This is largely attributed to the vast differences between the weighting and composition of US and international markets – mainly, the heavy weighting toward technology in the US and the relative absence of tech outside the US.

The overlay chart of Tech vs. the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 vs. the ACWI All World Index ratios tell the story. Tech dominance in the US strongly correlates with US dominance over global markets. With tech taking the brunt of the recent selling pressure, it calls into question the continued outperformance of US equities. This reiterates the possibility that what has worked for the past decade may not work in the years that lie ahead. Position accordingly…

...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway:

• Optimism fades as risk off reigns.
• Inflation hopes spring eternal.
• Beneath the global trends it’s Pax Britannica.

The hope that emerged from the epic March bounce and the promise of seasonal tailwinds has run into the harsh reality that the breadth backdrop remains challenging and the risk environment has not meaningfully improved. Simply put, this was not the April the bulls were looking for. Optimism has been nipped in the bud (AAII bulls dropped to their lowest level since 1992 last week) and our longer-term risk on /risk off indicator has fallen back toward its March lows. But nothing is actually that straight forward. Looking within our US Risk Off Index, we see three of them are at or near new highs, while two are breaking down to new lows. Even within areas that typically move...

Just to be clear, I'm no expert when it comes to NFTs.

Later this week I'll publish the latest podcast with Justin Paterno, Portfolio Manager of the new NFT fund by OSPREY that I'm an investor in.

But today I wanted to share some of my recent experiences with the new STEPN App and NFT.

I'm earning GST Coin to go running. In fact I've made about $150 worth of this Utility Coin in the past 3 days alone. That's one hundred fifty United States Dollars!

You can see the price of the STEPN coin here since the new issue last month:

Energy names have been working for us. So there's no reason to turn off the spigot just yet. Of course, mindful of our exposure in energy-related sectors already, I want to try to keep any additional risk exposure as limited as possible.

With this in mind, today's play is a bullish bet that we think will take some time to materialize. And we're going to use that assumption to help us lever into a trend at a cheaper cost of participation using a calendar spread.

Author's note

In conjunction with the All Star Charts quarterly playbook, this week's report is a copy of the crypto note we'll be attaching to the playbook.

It covers the themes we're monitoring, a few trades we like taking, and what we anticipate for the asset class moving into the second quarter.

Hope you had a great long weekend.

Cheers guys.

As we move into the second quarter, we leave behind a messy period in the world of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin ended the first quarter slightly lower while the entire asset class, measured by the total market capitalization, experienced a 9% loss. In this period, the new highs list among the alts has been ominously quiet as participation waned.

There’s been little in the way of market action in this environment. Staying on the sidelines in elevated stablecoin positions has been rewarded, while those who overtraded and bought into breakouts were punished.

I was at a family get together this weekend filled with Easter egg hunts, good wine and some great eats.

It was my wife's side of the family and some of them are familiar with what I do.

"So what are we doing about this upcoming recession, JC?"

"It's quite obvious a recession is coming..."

I responded with a question,

"How much of all that is already priced into the market?"