Key Takeaway: The lack of a meaningful rebound in price sustains a subdued atmosphere across the market. Sellers continue to drive prices lower and equity put/call ratios are on the rise. But due to the overwhelming decline in call volume this speaks more to a lack of risk appetite than outright fear. While pessimism is certainly present and has reached levels associated with opportunity, there is still plenty of room for sentiment to unwind. Current conditions carry significant risks with lackluster price action and equity ETFs starting to experience net outflows (three weeks in a row and four of the past five weeks). Simply put: we have not seen significant evidence of capitulation. Just because the recent market environment has been tough doesn’t mean it can’t get worse.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Is “As Bad As It’s Been” Good Enough?
Recent selling pressure has pushed the NASDAQ 100 into negative territory on a year-over-year basis. That has been unfamiliar...
As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!
One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during...
We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.
All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that guides us towards the very best stocks in the market. This time around, we have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to outperform the market.
It wasn't until the last year of high school that I made the last-minute decision to study finance at university. For the longest time, I was preparing to study mathematics, astronomy, and physics.
The universal disciplines of science I learned in this period will always stick with me as an aspiring trader.
One discipline is the Feynman Technique, a foundational mental model you can use to unlock growth in your career, startup, business, writing, and life.
While the dollar pressed to new highs against the yen, the pound, and the euro, it struggled to gain ground against commodity-centric and emerging market currencies.
The lack of broad strength had us questioning the validity of the recent rally in the US Dollar Index $DXY.
That’s changed recently.
Today, the dollar index is catching to new highs against a backdrop of broadening strength, not weakness. Now that we’re seeing dollar internals flip and start to confirm these new highs from the index, this is not a trend we want to fight.
And, to be clear, we haven’t been.
While we’ve been skeptical of the rally in the DXY, we’ve expressed a bullish view on the dollar via the major crosses. They’ve been the weakest links and main drivers of DXY strength.
As we’ve said before, one of the big characteristics that often differentiates good traders from mediocre ones is the ability to sit out when necessary.
Correlations to weak equities remain highly elevated. We’d like for those to dislocate before getting overly optimistic in the near term.
When it comes time to put money back on the table again, it’ll be obvious. Otherwise, we’ll continue being patient.
The market is messy and continues to remain so. There are only a select few names that are displaying the strength with consistency. In a messy market, that's the best area to focus on.
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
With the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq 100 and Global 100 Indexes down in recent weeks, the Dow Jones Transportation Average has been up each of the past 2 weeks.
And Transports started out this week positive once again: