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[Premium] Trade Of The Week

June 22, 2022

The market correction has extended over the past few weeks and the negative sentiment build-up is definitely not something that will fade away quickly. As more and more sectors move below their support zones, buy ideas are hard to come by. Today we're sharing a short idea from the financial services sector.

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The Bright Side of a Strong Dollar

June 21, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

Whatever we’re looking for, the market has it.

If we’re searching for large topping patterns and strong downtrends, there’s plenty to go around, especially in the bond and stock markets right now.

Some people love taking the short side, feeding on the doom and gloom narratives accompanying the selling pressure.

But if that’s not your cup of tea, plenty of markets are trending higher. If you’re more interested in assets making new highs and like buying high and selling higher, look no further than the currency market.

When it comes to forex crosses these days, it’s simple.

All we have to do is put the US dollar in the numerator or place the Japanese yen in the denominator, and we get big bases that have either broken out or are on the verge of breaking out.

It’s that easy.

We’ve highlighted the yen in recent posts, so today we’ll switch gears and focus on a couple USD crosses from northern Europe.

Let’s dive in!

Here’s the US dollar/Swedish krona cross:...

[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes

June 21, 2022
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway:

  • Patient investors will let the bulls prove their case.
  • Economic risks on the rise as data disappoints.
  • Central bank action adding pressure to market and economy.
When we look at the data we have in hand, avoiding recession is looking more and more like a dubious proposition. Last week’s retail sales data showed that adjusted for inflation, retail sales in May were below year ago levels. While COVID-related distortions have added to the volatility in sales data, the last three recessions  have all been associated with year over year declines in retail sales. XRT (the Retail ETF)is currently more than 40% below its November peak and the two prior times it found itself in a 40% drawdown (2008 and 2020), the economy was already in recession. New orders data from the Philly Fed show an...
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The Minor Leaguers (06-21-2022)

June 21, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We’ve had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn’t have to be a Russell component -- it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity...

Biotech Stocks See Bullish Options Flow

June 21, 2022

The largest insider transaction on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing from Allied Physicians of California.

The firm reported a purchase of roughly $9.2 million in Apollo Medical Holdings $AMEH. It now owns about 11 million shares for a total ownership interest of 19%.

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[Premium] Mid-Month Conference Call Video Recording June 2022

June 20, 2022

This is the video recording of the June 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

  • The S&P500 and Dow Jones Composite stuck below overhead supply
  • Major US Indexes are below their AVWAPs from the COVID lows
  • 30 consecutive weeks of more stocks making new lows than new highs
  • Seasonality could become a tailwind in July
  • Sentiment is as bad for stocks as I've ever seen
  • Relative strength out of Chinese Internet and other "culprits"
  • Bitcoin near important support
  • The US Dollar controls all of this. All eyes on DXY
  • Breadth Deterioration in Commodities
  • Long opportunities in Financials
  • Defensive Sectors are vulnerable
  • Gold is still below overhead supply
  • Copper/Gold ratio breaking down pointing to lower rates
  • Japanese Yen hits new multi-decade lows
  • Buy the dip in bonds? I think so
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Follow the Flow (06-20-2022)

June 20, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their...