Well, well, we're zooming out and looking at the big picture again.
This is that time again where we try to see through the fog of short-term moves and identify the long-term structure of the market. Every month, this process helps have a clear vision going into the new month. So let's dive in and look at some of these charts!
No one likes a bear market, except for the bears of course.
They haze the uninitiated, test market veterans, and remind everyone that assets can go to zero.
Not fun for most!
When we take a step back and assess all the data in front of us today, the outlook remains dismal for the overall market.
The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq have posted more new lows than new highs for 31 weeks and counting. Leadership groups carry a defensive tone. Topping patterns continue to resolve lower. Support levels are being ignored and violated. Long story short, it's ugly out here.
And it's not only stocks... Bitcoin just booked its worst month and quarter in over a decade and bonds are having one of their worst years in history.
No wonder investor sentiment is in the dumps. It’s clear we are in the midst of a bear market.
They’ve replaced the comical “stocks only go up” memes with images of the grim reaper coming for our favorite names. Even memes aren’t as funny in a bear market!
For this week's trade, we're selling an $XLE August 65/85 Short Strangle for an approximately $2.75 credit. This means we’ll be naked short equal amounts of the 65 puts and 85 calls.
Get the full details, risk management procedures and targets for this trade here:
Earlier this week, I laid out some similarities between now and 2008. From a price, liquidity, breadth and sentiment perspective, the echoes are there.
The comparisons keep popping up.
A couple of days ago, there was a chart showing that the ongoing decline in equity market value (relative to GDP) exceeds any other drawdown in the past 40 years with the exception of what was experienced during the Financial Crisis.
Today, it’s data from Gallup showing economic confidence is at levels only seen in 2008-2009.
I’m not saying that the market and the economy need to follow the course laid out in the wake of the Q4 2007 highs. But the more similarities we see, the more worthy it is of consideration. Put another way, until bulls provide proof that we are not following that path, it would be foolish (and perhaps expensive) to ignore it as a possibility. Don’t...
Neil Gagnon, the CEO of Gagnon Advisors LLC, revealed a purchase of approximately 43,200 shares in the small-cap software company SecureWorks Corp $SCWX.
When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.
Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.
We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.
The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too.
We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as the Hall of Famers, the Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics.
Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.
One of the greatest features of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies more broadly are the mechanisms that allow for self-custody.
In traditional assets like commodities and fiat, the only way to maintain self-custody of your assets is to inefficiently store them, which comes with a slew of security risks. Given the challenges of burying gold or stashing cash in a mattress, the overwhelming majority of people simply leave this daunting task to a financial intermediary.
The trouble in crypto, however, is the instability among even the most established of firms and institutions. Hacks, breaches, and insolvencies are incredibly commonplace in the world of digital assets. Even a handful of the largest protocols and lenders have gone under, and billions of funds have been lost in recent months.
And when it comes to exchanges -- one of the safer ways to store funds -- hacks have been common over the past few years.
You don't need to ask crypto native about the dangers of storing their crypto on exchanges. Mt Gox, which handled over 70% of all crypto trading in 2014, shut down after a hack led to the loss of...