When you look at as many charts as I do, you quickly start to notice when certain charts just don't look like most of the others.
Healthcare is one of those.
We discussed it all on this week's Live Conference Call. Premium Members click here to watch and download the slides.
And if you're not a Premium Member yet, just give us a call and we'll set you up: (323) 421-7910
The Healthcare conversation we're having is a really important one. Notice how with S&Ps, Nasdaq and other major indexes breaking down and completing tops, Healthcare has just traded sideways.
Despite positive returns at the index level for Q2, commodities have been in full retreat for the past month or more. We broke the damage down in last week’s post.
However you want to slice it, commodities are under increased selling pressure. The strongest areas aren’t breaking out; they’re trying to hold support.
That’s simply how raw materials are performing in the current environment. Yet we’re still finding levels we want to trade against from the long side.
Believe it or not, one of these situations is popping up in one of our favorite energy contracts…
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
The June employment report shows a labor market that remains on relatively firm footing. Nonfarm payrolls were up more than expected in the month, though this was partially offset by downward revisions to gains from previous months. Total employment rose at 3% annual rate in the second quarter, though adjusting for a downtick in average weekly hours, the aggregate hours worked index was up only 2% in the quarter. While continued growth in employment is good for workers, it is coming as output (as measured by GDP) is at best stalled and is more likely contracting. This is likely to put further upward pressure on unit labor costs and downward pressure on productivity. That translates to lower profit margins, which peaked in Q3 2021 and have fallen in each of the last two quarters. Slowing top line growth and contracting margins leave plenty of room for earnings estimates to be revised lower. That’s a fundamental headwind for stocks moving forward.
We've seen some bullish thrusts in sectors with ties to the medical and healthcare spaces, and if the broader market has designs on moving higher deeper into the summer, we think leaders will continue to emerge from this area.
Today's trade is a bet on one of those next leaders.
There’s been a lot of buzz about the dwindling likelihood of a Twitter $TWTR-Elon Musk tie-up this week.
As Musk’s team has reportedly cut off deal discussions around funding, the talking heads are telling us what price has been suggesting for months now: It’s not happening.
This All Star Charts +Plus Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of largely binary decisions and tactical calls. Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard and our Playbook Chartbook, this piece is designed to help active asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.
In Focus for July: We move into the third quarter, with many hoping for a respite from the environment that produced the worst first half of a year for balanced portfolios since the 1930’s. With 1% daily swings in the S&P 500 running at twice their historical rate (to the point that they have been the norm rather than the exception this year), leaning on price movements alone as evidence of improvement may be trickier than normal. The absence of an underlying breadth thrust regime has weighed heavily on equities. In the absence of such a signal, we want to see a combination of better breadth, liquidity and macro sentiment before thinking less...