From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The March 2021 CPI data (released in April of last year) showed the largest monthly increase in the prices in over a decade. The 2.7% yearly change in the CPI at that point was dismissed as being due to base effects written off as transitory. Some were even talking about how an uptick in inflation would be welcome. It has proven to be neither unduly influenced by base effects nor transitory. As inflation has continued to move higher and the Fed has belatedly attempted to bring it under control, neither stocks or bonds have responded favorably. The S&P 500 is down 3% since April 2021 and the aggregate bond index is down 8.5%. Commodities, however, have flourished, rising more than 77% in that time period. 

The details of today’s inflation report suggest price pressures remain prevalent. The Fed will likely have to intensify its inflation-fighting efforts. Whether from the Fed, the current Administration or the private sector, folks who were dismissive of inflation in Spring 2021 should have their current perspectives taken with a grain of salt. 

Well helloooo again volatility! It's been an interesting week.

There are not a whole lot of charts out there that have me too excited to put any aggressive risk on here. But thanks to the jump in volatility, we do have an opportunity to sell some premium in a staple with a nearby risk management level that should help keep losses minimal if we're wrong.

So let's get right to it!

This is the video recording of our June 10, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

Bonds form the largest money market in the world. The world of fundamental analysis has a lot of data, but when it comes to technical analysis, we narrow down the factors that matter. Basically, Interest rates are to the bond market what the price is to the stock market. This post will look into this topic and examine the present opportunities.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Cathie Wood’s infamous ARK Investment Management is on our list today, as it just added more than 1 million shares of biotech stock Twist Bioscience $TWST.

The latest 13G reports an ownership interest of more than 11% in the synthetic DNA specialist.

Whenever in doubt, zoom out!

That's how I learned it. Mostly the hard way.

And that's something we like to do once a month, is really zoom out.

Monthly Candlesticks are great for that!

During this month's review I really noticed how much stronger some of the European Indexes were. Especially this one here:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

The Japanese yen continues to be front and center, as the safe-haven currency can't seem to find its footing.

In a market where risk assets are struggling to catch any sort of sustained bid, finding investment opportunities in yen has been a great strategy. It continues to work.

Long USD/JPY has been one of the best trades on the sheets this year – by far! And it looks to be continuing its upward trajectory, as it hit fresh 20-year highs earlier this week.

Aside from providing a stellar trading opportunity, the current intermarket relationship between this forex cross and the bond market may reveal the near-term direction of the US 10-year yield.

Let’s take a look.

Here’s an overlay chart of the USD/JPY pair and the US 10-year yield with a 26-day correlation study in the lower pane:

This is the video recording of the June 9th Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

06/09/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

In Milwaukee, early June days when the temperature struggles to even get into the 60's happen almost every year. 

I've lived here long enough at this point (more than half my life) that it's not really a surprise anymore. For the first few years I lived here, I believed friends and family when they reassured me that it was "unseasonably cold." But I caught on soon enough.

In fact, it was 55 degrees and overcast here just yesterday. It had been raining off and on all day.  

I have no problem with any of those conditions – I’m not writing this note to complain about the weather. While I don’t think of it as Summer and it’s not what I was looking forward to, I can adjust. 

When the worst stocks in the world can't go down, what does that say about current market conditions?

Granted, I'm more into breakouts above horizontal trendlines than diagonal ones, but as Steve Strazza told me yesterday, "of course, but one comes before the other".

When you're right you're right Mr. Strazza.

Here's that breakout we were discussing:

The next new trade in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is: