From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

Naturally, after a drawdown like the crypto markets have endured, this is the part of the cycle where everyone tries to call a bottom. Of course, we don't need to discuss the dangers of this treacherous journey of bottom-calling where many traders eventually meet their fate.

There is perhaps no worse setup for active traders than in environments like these.

Times like these are when volatility is rampant, emotions are elevated, and bad decisions are made.

But, there are two antidotes:

1. Don't trade, be patient, and buy when upward momentum returns.
2. Dollar cost-average in the value zones.

For the most part, we continue to hammer down the first point. Going back to December, we've been preaching patience and high cash positions.

But today, we want to address the potential credence in the notion of Bitcoin dollar-cost-averaging in the context of this recent selloff.

One of the arts of discretionary trading is practicing the ability to change our minds when facts or circumstances change.

We are not wed to following a rule rook.

There is no requirement to do "x" when "y" happens.

Of course, few discretionary traders succeed without some set of rules that are more like Best Practices. The rules may be fluid and change with market conditions, but there are almost always some guardrails in place. If for no other reason than to protect ourselves from ourselves.

The broad market selloff these past couple weeks has caused us to defensively roll a bunch of our short puts, which has eaten into our overall net positive cashflow. This will happen from time to time. But it definitely has spurred me to update my guardrails.

As the June monthly options cycle rolled off the board this past week, this makes July monthly options the "front month" options. As such, any new positions we'll be adding starting this coming week will be in the August monthly expiration series.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

One of the most important risk ratios and easily the biggest snooze fest from the past year is finally starting to move. 

That’s right – after going nowhere for more than a year, the Copper/Gold ratio is making a directional move! And believe it or not, it’s resolving in the opposite direction of interest rates.

Instead of following rates higher, Copper/Gold is rolling over to the downside and raising questions regarding risk appetite and overall market health.

And from the looks of today’s price action, Dr. Copper is breaking down on an absolute basis as well.

We can’t emphasize the importance of these developments enough. We’ve been awaiting resolutions of these ranges since early last year, and it’s finally happening.

Let’s talk about it.

Here’s an overlay chart of the Copper/Gold ratio and Copper futures:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Not sure where I first heard it, but I’ve always loved this saying: “Bull markets take you to levels you never thought you would see. Bear markets take you to levels you never thought you would see again.” Since the S&P 500 is now down more than 20% from its January peak, we are able to discuss bear market tendencies without getting the “yeah buts” from polite society. The S&P 500 is at levels not seen since late-2020, while the small-cap Russell 2000 is below its pre-COVID high back to where it was in early-2018. The Value Line Geometric index is also below its pre-COVID high and is at a level it first reached in early 2015. That is seven years of no progress for an index that serves as a proxy for the median stock.    

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

Now that inflation is no longer transitory and we’ve officially entered bear market territory, "recession" is the next buzzword on deck.

And don’t worry: Plenty of banter surrounding the yield curve will take center stage during all this recession talk. 

Somehow, an inverted yield curve has become synonymous with recession even though the historical record supporting this narrative leaves room for plenty of interpretation. 

The purpose of this post is not to present an argument on whether we’re already in a recession or if one is imminent. We’ll leave that up to the talking heads and economists.

Instead, we'll simply share where the yield curve is today and assess the likelihood of potential inversion.

Let’s take a look…

Here’s a triple-pane chart of the US 30-year, 10-year, and 5-year yields:

Taking losses is never fun. But it's the most important thing we do.

I wish it were different. I wish smart risk management was an exciting endeavor that made us happy. The kind of thing that makes us want to high-five our friends and adoring fans.

Unfortunately, it's more like that menial task that you have to do over and over again, hating every minute of it, but knowing it just has to be done (like the doing the dishes or laundry).

This is the video recording of our June 17, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

William Griffith, director of Procore Technologies $PCOR, reported an additional purchase of roughly $7 million, as he continues to build his position in the stock.

Under Iconiq Strategic Partners II, he now owns about 44 million shares for a total ownership interest of 33%.