From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

So far, 2022 has been a historic year. That theme intensified during the second quarter, which is now in the books.

The bond market is working on one of its worst years on record. The S&P 500 just posted its worst quarterly return since 1970 with the index down more than 16% from January through March.

Bitcoin finished the quarter with its second-worst return in its short history. And now the energy sector – the market’s leader this year – just posted its third-worst monthly return since the 1990s.

The operative words here are “worst” and “return.”

That’s 2022 in a nutshell. The bears are in complete control.

However, one area that has held up through all this is commodities. It was the best-performing asset class in 2021, and it’s the only one to close the first half of 2022 in the green.

Let’s note that the first quarter of 2022 was far different from the second. And before we go running to commodities for safety, let’s put the group’s recent performance in perspective.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

June asset allocation data from the AAII suggests that investors are beginning to act on their emotions. It’s not uncommon for sentiment to lead and positioning to lag, but the gap between the two had gotten historically wide. That is beginning to change as investors shift from equities to cash. The AAII asset allocation survey shows equity exposure dropping from 67% in May to 65% in June, while cash exposure rose from 19% to 21%. History suggests this could be the beginning of a larger unwind. When sentiment got to similar extremes in 1990, 2003 and 2008, stock exposure approached 40% from above and cash exposure approached 40% from below. By the March 2009 Financial Crisis low, cash exposure was above equity exposure. Even during the brief (though intense) COVID crash, equity exposure dipped to 55% and cash exposure jumped to 26%. If past periods are a guide, investors may only be in the early stages of adjusting equity market exposure.

The title of this post is a takeoff from one of my favorite ongoing SouthPark bits involving our friendly Canadian neighbors :)

There seem to be better bearish setups on my radar than bullish ones. This makes sense as I prefer to trade with trends and the overall stock market trend in 2022 has been down. Ballsier traders than me like to step in and "buy the dip." But I'd rather let the market prove itself to me first.

One of the most beaten-down sectors has been tech stocks. Steve Strazza summed up this sector with one word: "Awful." Yeah.

The stock in my crosshairs today comes from this area.

This is the video recording of our July 1, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Well, well, we're zooming out and looking at the big picture again.

This is that time again where we try to see through the fog of short-term moves and identify the long-term structure of the market. Every month, this process helps have a clear vision going into the new month. So let's dive in and look at some of these charts!

As the sleepy summer season carries on, so do the short Hot Lists.

Director Timothy J. Wilmott revealed an acquisition worth $1.2 million in Darden Restaurants $DRI.

Mario Gabelli’s GAMCO Investors filed a 13D revealing an ownership stake of 22.3% in Telesat Corporation $TSAT.

China is an emerging market right? But is it?

While it's the biggest component of the Emerging Markets Index $EEM, is it something larger, maybe more developed?

It doesn't really have a category.

It's like Notre Dame Football.

From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

No one likes a bear market, except for the bears of course.

They haze the uninitiated, test market veterans, and remind everyone that assets can go to zero.

Not fun for most!

When we take a step back and assess all the data in front of us today, the outlook remains dismal for the overall market.

The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq have posted more new lows than new highs for 31 weeks and counting. Leadership groups carry a defensive tone. Topping patterns continue to resolve lower. Support levels are being ignored and violated. Long story short, it's ugly out here.

And it's not only stocks... Bitcoin just booked its worst month and quarter in over a decade and bonds are having one of their worst years in history.

No wonder investor sentiment is in the dumps. It’s clear we are in the midst of a bear market. 

They’ve replaced the comical “stocks only go up” memes with images of the grim reaper coming for our favorite names. Even memes aren’t as funny in a bear market!

Look guys, we try to be real with you.

We don't like to sugarcoat what's happening. We don't make up stories. We don't follow journalists and narratives.

What we do is follow the money flow.

This is the video recording of the June 30th Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

06/30/22 2:00 PM ET

For this week's trade, we're selling an $XLE August 65/85 Short Strangle for an approximately $2.75 credit. This means we’ll be naked short equal amounts of the 65 puts and 85 calls.

Get the full details, risk management procedures and targets for this trade here: