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Will Key Levels Hold?

September 30, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

After months of selling pressure, the most widely followed commodity contracts are testing critical potential support levels.

More importantly, these support levels are the prior-cycle highs marked by the 2018 peaks. If there was ever a place where the bulls needed to step in and repair the damage this is it!

But, if these levels fail, we’ll have to rethink the structural uptrend in commodities.

Let’s run through the charts.

First, we have our commodity index that equal-weights the top 33 contracts in our universe:

Earlier this week, the index completed an 18-month top and broke to its lowest level since April 2021. This highlights the broad selling pressure across the commodity space and the need for a...

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International Hall of Famers (09-30-2022)

September 30, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

September 30, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Stocks & Bonds Make It Three In A Row

The Chart: 

In the past we've had bonds down for 3 consecutive quarters and we've had stocks down for 3 (or more) consecutive quarters. Since at least 1976, we have never before had stocks & bonds both down in 3 consecutive quarters.

Why It Matters: 

The lack of safe harbors in 2022 has taken a financial and emotional toll on investors. After the storm passes, some may want to re-evaluate their investment opportunity set and perceived risk tolerance.   

The Bulls Have Left The Building

September 30, 2022

Who's left to sell?

That's the question I find myself asking as we finish up the 3rd Quarter today.

(We'll discuss it all Monday night 6PM ET during our Live Monthly Charts Strategy Session)

Since the market peaked in February 2021, it's been a slow grind lower for stocks all over the world.

We're now approaching 20 months of this ongoing bear market.

It's no longer a secret that stocks are going down.

You can see it in the Put/Call Ratio hitting levels last seen at the 2018 and 2020 market lows:

Swing Trader Pro: Morning Briefing (09-30-2022)

September 30, 2022

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

As of now, the S&P 500 is still managing to hold onto the 3,600 level, and the $SPY is at 360.

Should we really break below 360, we can see 359, then 354.80. You can always trade long against the SPY 360 level and use 360 as a stop if you like.

LGP Management Buys More WCC

September 30, 2022

The largest insider transaction on today's list is a Form 4 filing by LGP Management.

The firm reported a purchase worth roughly $12 million in the mid-cap electrical company WESCO International $WCC.

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Bonds Begin to Buckle

September 29, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Don’t let credit spreads fool you. 

High-yield debt hasn’t blown out relative to Treasuries. Regardless, the largest markets in the world are buckling under pressure.

You have to look outside the US and beyond high-yield corporate bonds to see the stress. Here are three cautionary data points to consider: European sovereign spreads, US bond market volatility, and the steep decline in investment-grade bonds.

When you weigh the evidence, it’s clear risks are rising for US markets. 

Let’s look at the charts!

First, here's a look at European sovereign spreads:

At first glance, these spreads look similar to high-yield spreads. They’re chopping sideways at or near their peaks from the 2020 crash. Nothing alarming or unusual from the countries at the highest risk of default – Spain, Italy, or Portugal. 

It’s a different story when it comes to the UK, as the spread between the UK-...