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Dow Jones Industrial Average: Still Underrated

October 16, 2022

There is a constant conversation among market participants about which indexes are the better representation of the stock market, particularly in the United States.

While the media often quotes the Dow Jones Industrial Average daily changes, professionals tend to steer towards the S&P500.

The argument normally revolves around the price-weighted nature of the Dow Jones Industrial Average vs the market-cap driven S&P500.

The diversity of 500 stocks in the S&P is also a key point when compared to just 30 stocks for the Dow.

Today, I just wanted to remind everyone why I think the Dow Jones Industrial Average is underrated and why I think it is still one of the most useful indexes for any stock market participant.

High Positive Correlation With The S&P500

First of all, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P500 have a very high positive correlation to one another.

Breadth Improvement? Or Just Less Bad?

October 15, 2022

In yesterday's note we talked about how the Dow Jones Industrial Average went up in price for the 2nd consecutive week. This isn't something we've seen happen too often in 2022.

But what else happened this week?

Well, we got fewer stocks making new 52-week lows on the NYSE. The peak in new lows was back in June, which was 4 months ago.

You can see it in shorter-time horizons as well. Look at the S&P500 new 63 day low list continuing to deteriorate (63 days = 3 months = 1 quarter):

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International Hall of Famers (10-14-2022)

October 14, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

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The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

October 14, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The commodity markets never lack action. 

Since it’s such a diverse asset class, we’ll always have contracts we want to buy, some that we want to short, and others we want to avoid.

Today, I’m going to outline one of each. Let’s dive in!

The Breakout

According to the latest reports, Hurricane Ian (strong name, terrible storm) may have cut the Florida orange crop in half.

Whether it’s true doesn’t matter. I’m more concerned with a well-defined level to trade against. Check out the daily chart of orange juice futures:

The chart looks good to me! A five-month base breakout to fresh five-year highs is the kind of strength I like to buy.

The line in the sand is 191. You can get long above this level with an initial target of 220 and a secondary objective of 242.50.

Remember, OJ futures are thinly traded. You need to adjust your...

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

October 14, 2022

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

Labor Pressure Eases - Is Inflation Next?

The Chart: 

On the labor front, job openings turned lower in August and the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker for September seems to have followed suit. On the inflation front, the year change in the median CPI reached another new high (its 7th in a row) in September.

Why It Matters: 

Despite a bevy of other explanations, surging inflation has had more to do with imbalances in the labor market than anything else. A drop in job openings (while not a sign of strength) is a more preferable way to restore labor market balance than increased layoffs and unemployment. With wage growth now slowing, the hope is that inflation could soon peak. The challenge is that once the inflation genie is loose it can be hard to get under control - even if the initial causes are mitigated. In that regard, this month’s jump in inflation expectations reported with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey is unwelcome news for the Fed...

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[Options Premium] Hiding Out With the Aristocrats

October 14, 2022

While this certainly is not the market environment to be taking aggressive long bets in, there are some stocks that are displaying tremendous relative strength that we can play with strictly defined-risk positions to protect ourselves.

Our Young Aristocrats Report shows us stocks that aren’t just paying dividends but are doing so while they’re going up and thus paying us via price appreciation as well.

And this week's report serves up a great opportunity.

Chart of the Day: Major Market Trends

October 14, 2022

There are a lot of trends in markets that are worth paying attention to.

Remember, asset prices trend. They're not random.

We have the data.

So one major trend we want to make sure we're not ignoring is in Energy stocks relative to Technology.

Look at the ratio between them making new multi-year highs, yet the S&P500 weighting in energy is still less than 5% of the entire index. But Technology is still almost 25% of the index.

Is that weighting sustainable?