We held our September Monthly Strategy Session Tuesday night. Premium Members can click here to watch the recording and review the chartbook.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.
This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
After Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks this morning, the market is pricing in an 86% chance of a 75-basis-point hike later this month.
Meanwhile, rates continue to accelerate at the short end of the curve. That’s been the story for months now.
But will the middle and long end of the curve head higher as well?
According to the two-year US Treasury yield, the answer is a resounding "yes!"
Short-duration rates offer plenty of valuable, leading information regarding US Treasury yields.
We’ve leaned on the five-year yield throughout the current cycle as an early indication of the direction of the 10- and 30-year. It’s proved a beneficial practice.
Today, we’re going to drop it down a notch, extending the same logic to the two-year yield.
Here’s a quad-pane chart of the two-, five-, 10-, and 30-year US Treasury yields:
This All Star Charts +Plus Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of largely binary decisions and tactical calls. Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard and our Playbook Chartbook, this piece is designed to help active asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.
There's been so little to discuss in the way of data points that'd pull us from the doldrums.
Strazza sent a brief note in our Slack chat to ask how many cryptos were below their June-July lows. This is when things were at their worst -- 3AC just got margin-called, and there were mass liquidations.
Upon quantifying this, only 4% of our universe of 316 coins are below their closing June-July lows.
The big insider transaction everyone is talking about this morning isn’t on our list, as there hasn’t been a filing yet.
Last night, during the Asana $ASAN earnings call, the company announced that its founder, Dustin Moskovitz, will be purchasing another $350 million worth of stock via a private placement.