We've currently only got one delta-neutral "income" trade on the books right now, but that one will be coming off sometime this week as it is comprised of December options which expire this Friday.
In a perfect world, I always prefer to have a least some delta-neutral short premium exposure in the portfolio to help us compensate for any sideways chop that the markets might serve up to our existing directional bets. It's a a nice portfolio diversifier.
With this in mind, today's trade will be in an ETF that is currently trading smack-dab in the middle of a four month range that I expect will hold for a least a few more weeks.
Over the last few months, I've started taking my fitness and my health more seriously.
In my first fourth months of strength training, I packed on 30 pounds and added close to 100 pounds on my squat and deadlift. I started out at a tiny frame for my height, so my progress has been no surprise.
While I've been growing at this rate, I've needed to prioritize my recovery. That meant eating tons of food, getting plenty of sleep, and only training three days a week.
It isn't rocket science.
In fact, it's the very physiology of training: stress, recovery, and adaption.
Without sufficient recovery, there is no growth.
Whether or not you're on a fitness journey, I think we can all relate to the pleasure of a weekend recovery. These two precious days allow us to review the events of the prior week while planning ahead for the days to come.
Our Monday crypto letter is a manifestation of this recovery process. It's our weekly "state of the market" that documents how we're approaching crypto as a collective.
I certainly get a ton of value from putting my thoughts down on paper.
Not only does it allow me to coherently structure...
This is going to be a volatile week, with CPI data tomorrow and the Fed on Wednesday. Be on your toes, monitor your positions, and have your stops tight.
The indices are in a battle zone. The $SPX is trading between support and resistance. The pattern is tight. $SPY needs to get above 398 in order to head higher, simply put.
Remember when they told you Gold was a hedge against inflation?
It wasn't.
Remember when they told you Gold was a safe haven asset?
It wasn't.
Remember all those times the Gold bugs made up fairy tales about future price appreciation for their rocks?
It never happened.
And so here we are. Well over a decade later, Gold prices are actually still down 6% from their 2011 highs. Silver is somehow still down over 50% from those highs.
Think about the opportunity cost of owning precious metals instead of pretty much anything else.
It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?
Not only are commodities losing their leaders, but the leaders are losing their former 2018 highs. As bearish as this sounds, commodities still deserve the benefit of the doubt.
Heating oil futures just posted their lowest level since February. Meanwhile, gasoline and crude have printed fresh year-to-date lows, taking out their prior cycle highs.
Now what?
Should we expect broad selling pressure to hit the commodity space?
Not so fast…
If you believe impending weakness awaits commodities in the coming weeks and months, this chart is for you: our energy index overlaid with our broad commodity index (both equal-weight):
Energy contracts have led the way higher while relinquishing far less than the broader index – until now.
It’s a logical assumption that commodities as a whole will fall without the participation of the leadership group. But the EW33 index has yet to break...