[9/7: updated stop to 180. We're already #FreeRiding, so whatever we sell for is pure profit!]

It's time for the small caps to make a stand. The time is now. If they don't, it could be 'goodnight' for a long time.

JC posted earlier this week about the Russell 200 index and had this to say:

We’re back to a key level of interest for Small-caps on an absolute basis. And we’re back down to historic levels relative to Large-caps. The chart tells a very powerful story.

I’m a buyer down here.

If the Russell2000 is above last Summer’s lows, I will be long the $IWM ETF. I also think there will be plenty of opportunities this summer in small-cap stocks.

We talked about $IWM internally this morning and I suggested a good, levered way to play this thesis while honoring a nearby risk management level that will get us out of the trade without much pain if we're wrong.

But first, here's the chart of $IWM:

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The largest insider transaction on today’s Hot List is a Form 4 filing by Enviva Inc $EVA director John Bumgarner Jr.

Bumgarner reported a purchase worth roughly $1.8 million in EVA.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

CPI data for April will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

I'll hold off on ideas until I see how the market reacts.

I make quick decisions.

Is that because I’m a trader? Or am I a trader because I make quick decisions?

Over time, I think I’ve come to the conclusion that being a trader has instilled in me a knack and preference for quick decision-making. I wasn’t always like this. 25 years of trading has taught me to work with only 75% of the information I might want, and that is good enough to take action.

The phrase “invest, then investigate,” as Stanley Druckenmiller said, comes to mind.

Outside of trading, this can also affect my day-to-day decision-making. I think it frustrates my wife when I make decisions so quickly. In her mind, she probably thinks I’m being irrational, emotional, or acting on impulse. She, in contrast, is very deliberate. Cautious. Analyzes every detail…

...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market was in a standstill today, awaiting the CPI print on Wednesday.

The indices held on.

Tomorrow might give a clearer picture near term.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Dollar bulls hold the line.

The US Dollar Index $DXY is clinging to the 100 level, refusing to let go despite new 52-week highs for the British pound and a steady rise in the euro.

I’ve laid out numerous ways to play the dollar in recent months and what will confirm a DXY breakdown. None of that has changed.

But one chart caught my eye.

I was struck over the weekend by the resemblance between the commercial position in gold and DXY.

Check it out…

DXY sits up top with the commercial or smart money position in gold in the lower pane:

I don’t know why this strong positive relationship escaped me in the past. But the correlation between these two charts makes sense.

Smart money buys gold as the dollar rises.

Remember, a strong...

The weakness in Small-caps has been well documented by now.

Look at the performance since the beginning of 2022.

While the Dow, S&P500 and other major indexes are pushing up near 52-week highs, the Russell2000 is down near 52-week lows.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The largest insider transaction on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Ares Management.

The firm revealed a $7.5 million purchase in Frontier Communications Parent $FYBR.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

$QQQ hit a fresh high yesterday, and this morning we're pulling back.

We could be in a standstill until tomorrow's CPI data.