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Precious Metals: Trash or Treasure?

July 31, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I find the general distaste for precious metals amusing.

It cracked me up when a close friend referred to gold as “hot garbage” at the start of the year. The Nasdaq 100 was trading almost 36% off its 2021 zenith. And gold was within striking distance of its former all-time highs.

Yet gold was trash in this investor’s eyes.

That’s information.

Information that got me thinking about a rally in precious metals…

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Follow the Flow (07-31-2023)

July 31, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

All Star Charts Gold Rush

Precious Metals: Trash or Treasure?

July 31, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I find the general distaste for precious metals amusing.

It cracked me up when a close friend referred to gold as “hot garbage” at the start of the year. The Nasdaq 100 was trading almost 36% off its 2021 zenith. And gold was within striking distance of its former all-time highs.

Yet gold was trash in this investor’s eyes.

That’s information.

Information that got me thinking about a rally in precious metals…

Gold might churn within a range-bound mess over longer to intermediate time frames. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t trade it – or other precious metals. 

In fact, I continue to find fresh levels that define outsized risk-to-reward opportunities.

Here’s the Silver Trust ETF $SLV digging in at a critical shelf of former lows:

 

As long as SLV is trading above 20.50, I like holding SLV in my portfolio with an upside target of 35 (nice profit potential for a commonly discarded investment). 

Yes, I think silver is heading back to the 2012 peak! 

I highly doubt we’ll witness it tomorrow or even next month. Regardless, I think it...

Do You Own Enough Energy?

July 31, 2023

The fact that Energy hasn't even broken out yet really stands out to me.

Energy, and commodities in general, have been left for dead this year.

Investors have forgotten about that third asset class: Commodities.

It's not just stocks and bonds kids.

There are Commodities too!

Here's the Energy Sector Index, flat over the past 15 years.

It still hasn't even broken out:

Regime Change?

July 30, 2023

I still don't think the second half of 2023 is going to look like the first half.

A lot of things could be different.

Let's remember, in the back half of 2022 almost every stock and sector was already going up, EXCEPT for Mega-cap growth.

And then in early January, they got the rotation they were looking for, and it became Tech and Growth as the leaders of this Bull Market.

Now that we're in Month #14 of this Bull Market regime, and we've seen several cycles of rotation already, I think it's time for another one.

First of all, take a look at the Nasdaq100 $QQQ currently running into former resistance from late 2021, that preceded the failed breakout and ensuing collapse: