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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 8/19/24

August 19, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolled GDX position to October.
  3. Closed IWM at Profit Target and XLI for a scratch.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

All Star Charts Crypto

🔍 Waiting for Shape

August 19, 2024

The primary theme in crypto is that we have just undergone a significant rinse in bullish positioning. This is positive to see.

Although, the market does tend to take some time to shape up following this deleveraging events. We want to play crypto patiently and keeping our trading exposure light in the short-term by focusing on any relative leadership until some shape has been put in.

Equity market strength gives me further conviction to anticipate the resolution will be higher once this shaping period has completed, hence why I have increased our intermediate term bias to bullish while keeping our short-term bias at neutral.

I think the evidence points to a low of sizeable magnitude having been put in, but now the expectation is sideways price action as we enter into a shaping period.

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The 79th Element Continues To Shine

August 16, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

The price action from commodities has been lackluster, at best, this year. Our equal-weight commodity index is at its lowest level since early 2021.

Despite the broad weakness, gold continues to shine. The 79th element closed this week at its highest price in history.

Here’s a look at gold futures, trading at our first objective measured from the multi-decade base that resolved higher back in Q1:

As long as this breakout sticks, the bias remains higher for the yellow metal. 

On a more tactical note, gold has just completed a multi-month continuation pattern and is in the early stages of a fresh leg up:

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[Options Premium] Off to the Race!

August 16, 2024

Feels fitting to position ourselves in a company that is known for going fast. Because if this bull market is about to resume its normal operation, then this company is likely going to lead us higher, quickly.

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International Hall of Famers (08-16-2024)

August 16, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

It's Not Just Tech - Look at Canada eh!

August 15, 2024

Toronto is such a great town.

I hadn't been here since 2019.

It's fun seeing all the ADRs in the wild - Bank of Montreal $BMO, Canadian Pacific $CP, Royal Bank of Canada $RBC and so many others!

Also, the conversations I'm overhearing in the hotel lobby have been about the S&P500 and earnings. You don't hear talk like that in many other cities.

It's not surprising, as we all know Toronto is a big financial hub for Canada. But it's reassuring to experience it and watch it thrive.

The TSX is hitting new all-time highs eh!

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Breakout Alert: The Euro Posts Fresh 6-Month Highs

August 14, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY is finishing the day relatively unchanged.

Today’s much anticipated CPI print failed to move the needle for the greenback.

On the flip side, $DXY’s most significant component – the euro – is ripping toward a new year-to-date high.

Check out the EUR/USD pair completing a seven-month bullish reversal pattern, retesting its January high:

The path of least resistance now leads higher.

I like buying the euro against the 1.0958 breakout level, targeting 1.1250. But I'm out if the EUR/USD slips into its prior range.

A pop in the euro tends to weaken DXY since it makes up 56.7% of the index, acting as a bullish catalyst for stocks. 

Yet the dollar continues to hold above last Monday’s low.