This past week, I sat down for an interview with the author of Options Trading for Dummies, Joe Duarte, and my friend Jason Perz. We covered a wide range of topics geared toward helping newer traders get more comfortable with options. But what stuck with me most wasn’t a technical point or a strategy—it was an unexpected insight that hit me like a flash of clarity.
It came from something Jason said in passing, and I haven’t been able to stop thinking about it since:
Options traders are always fighting time.
And that works against us in two major ways.
1. Options Force Us to Time the Market
We’ve all heard it: “You can’t time the market.” And yet, if you’re trading options, you’re doing exactly that—whether you mean to or not.
Every options trade comes with an expiration date. That means your thesis has to not only be directionally correct, but correct within a specific window of time. If the stock moves in your favor after your contracts expire, you were still right—but it won’t matter. You’ll be left holding the bag.
Most of us aren’t wired for that kind of precision...
For traders, being early is just as bad as being wrong.
And I’ve been early on energy. There’s no doubt.
We’ve taken some shots with call options and they haven’t worked.
But I’m also building and increasing long-term positions in the traditional oil & gas space. Nothing fancy. I’m talking about the largest integrated players around the globe.
Exxon, Chevron, Canadian Natural, Petrobras… I’m leaning into the big boys in my long-term account. How about those dividend yields?
And the data keeps telling me I’m on the right track.
Pull up a price chart and tell me I’m crazy. Because you’d be right.
Energy bulls are trying to catch a falling knife right now. That’s a top in crude for the time being…
However, my technical upbringing has me focused on other things. I’m a...
Matt Warder appeared as the featured guest on today's Morning Show on Stock Market TV, which was an extra special treat for commodity junkies like us.
Matt is widely recognized as the best Coal analyst in the world.
He’s in constant contact with top executives in the space and is basically a walking commodity encyclopedia, especially when it comes to Black Diamonds.
We had the pleasure of meeting him in New Orleans for our Portfolio Accelerator event and walked away smarter for it.
So when Steve Strazza asked him what commodity he’s most excited about right now, we were all ears.
His answer? “Titanium.”
No hesitation.
Coming from someone with Matt’s pedigree in the Coal markets, that caught us off guard.
But after looking at the charts, it makes a lot of sense why he didn't mention Coal.
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.
We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important...
The banking sector in Canada is vastly different than the U.S. For one thing, there are far fewer of them! And there's really only a handful that matter.
One of those that matters is currently doing something that matters -- it's breaking out to new all-time highs!
I don’t know much about Peru, outside of the fact that they make some great ceviche.
But I’ve been thinking about the country a lot today.
MSCI Peru $EPU was on a short list of international ETFs that made new highs today.
At first, I was puzzled by this. It was a sea of red out there. Everything got hit. Not just in the US, but across the globe.
Then I looked at the funds holdings and realized how it happened. EPU is basically a big basket of metals stocks. 50% of the fund is invested in materials.
Here it is resolving higher from a multi-year base:
Gold and silver miners were the only stocks that worked today. Both of the shiny metals look fantastic, and I think silver is just breaking out now.