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Under The Hood (03-31-2025)

March 31, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended March 14th, 2025. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

 

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’...

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US Stocks Below Overhead Supply

March 31, 2025

Today is celebration! 

Not only do we get a fresh batch of Monthly Candlesticks today at the close, but we also get all the quarterly data at the same time. 

This kind of party only happens 4 times a year - where we get the monthlies and the quarterlies on the same day.

That day is today. 

As we head into Q2 of 2025, I think the big theme here is Overhead supply in major U.S. Indexes and massive underperformance from U.S. Technology.

See U.S. Technology and High Beta hitting new 22-month relative lows and also check out:...

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U.S. Stock Indexes are 0 for 3

March 30, 2025

We talk a lot about rotation around here. But there isn't anywhere that it's as pronounced as in U.S. stocks compared to everything else.

This week we talked about U.S. Technology and High Beta hitting new 22-month relative lows

Keep in mind, that despite so many things working this year, the exposure that U.S. Indexes have to American Tech stocks is off the charts. 

You simply don't have any American Mega-cap Tech stocks in Europe (FEZ), which is up over 14.5% this quarter. Latin America (ILF) and Africa (AFK) are each up 13.5% this quarter. And Chinese Internet (KWEB) is up 20%. 

These are historic returns to start the year. And I'm not cherry picking here. We're literally talking about every continent except North America. 

Meanwhile, the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq100 are all...

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The Market’s Most Honest Analyst: Dr. Copper

March 30, 2025

If global growth is going to pick up, you’ll likely see it first in the copper to gold ratio. 

Historically, it moves in lockstep with the 10 year yield — and right now, there’s a glaring gap. If that gap closes, copper’s about to get loud.

 

And it’s already whispering.

Copper just hit a 52 week high.

International stocks are starting to hum.

Momentum always shows up quietly before it slams the door.

Here’s the kicker: global growth isn’t being driven by the usual suspects. It’s not the U.S. or Europe. It’s the rest of the world — emerging market and developing economies are growing at 4.2%, more than double the 1.8% of advanced economies. 

The world is moving at 3.2%, and the heavy lifting is coming from places most investors still ignore.

That matters. Because copper doesn’t just track growth — it sniffs it out early. And right now, it smells something big.

(TLDR) Why we think copper moves higher from here:

  • Copper just broke out to a new 52 week high
  • International equities are gaining momentum alongside it
  • The...
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American Growth Stocks Are The Worst

March 28, 2025

There are so many things working this year. American Growth stocks are just not on the list.

The underperformance from this group is on another level. These are things that haven't been seen in 20 years.

Look at U.S. Technology hitting new cycle lows relative to the S&P500. The struggle has been real since last summer. And the selling has not slowed down.

 

Also notice how the High Beta Index is hitting new lows relative to Low Volatility.

Over half the S&P500 High Beta Index is in Technology.

Berkshire Hathaway, for example, which is hitting new all-time highs, is one of the largest component of the Low Volatility Index.

It's the High Beta stuff - Tech and Consumer Discretionary, that's leading the way lower in the United States.

Here is the Semiconductors Index peaking last summer relative to the S&P500 "in the middle of an AI Revolution" lol. 

AI revolution. More like an AI hallucination...

 

There are so many things working in this market.

Every single sector in the U.S. is either flat or up in 2025, except for Technology and Consumer Discretionary which are both down double digits this...

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(Commodities Weekly) Base Metals Are Heating Up: Copper’s Just the Start 📈♨️

March 28, 2025

Copper futures are breaking out to new all-time highs. Is this a signal for the whole Base Metals complex?

We think so and here's why.

When Copper leads, the rest of the base metals often follow. 

We've seen this happen in numerous cycles. The last occurrence was in 2020.

This trade is even better when Gold is the first one out of the gate, which is the case this cycle. We discussed it a few weeks ago - be sure to check out that post if you haven't already.

The evidence for a base metals rally has been stacking up recently. Aluminum is shaping up nicely, and we think it could be one of the next to go.

From there, we expect Steel, Nickel, Tin, Zinc, and all of the rest to follow.

Our Equal-Weight Base Metals Index looks ready to break out: 

This index holds an equally-weighted basket...

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International Hall of Famers (03-28-2025)

March 28, 2025

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...
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[Options Premium] What If Everyone's Wrong?

March 28, 2025

Everyone has an opinion on the stock underlying today's trade. Strong opinions.

The Bulls think the stock price is a steal here. The Bears think this party is over, and a long overdue comeuppance is on the horizon, which will careen the stock price lower.

What if everyone's wrong?

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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 3/28/25

March 28, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolled GLD to May options.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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Junior International Hall of Famers (03-27-2025)

March 27, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

 

Click table to enlarge view

And here’s how we arrived at it…

We removed laggards which are down 5% or more relative to the ACWI Ex. U.S. Index $ACWX over the trailing...