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One of my junior analysts (Rick! He's the Man!) brought a stock to my attention that is in an attractive sector that could fly under the right conditions.
Add to this that there is a high short interest and there is "meme" stock potential, and this could really be an upside portfolio-buster for us.
In today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza and I discuss our growing frustrations with the current market environment. Seems neither our bullish bets nor our bearish bets are gaining any traction in this tape.
What can we do with this information?
Watch the show below to see how we arrived at the details for today's trade.
Here's the Play:
I like entering into a $FCX February 30/35/45/50 Iron Condor for an approximately 70-cent net credit. This means I'll be short equal amounts of the February 35 puts and 45 calls, and long the same amount of 30 puts and 50 calls to cap my maximum risk:
As long as $FCX stays inside the range of our short strikes (above $35 per share and below $45 per share), we'll profit in this trade.
I'll leave a resting order to close this entire spread for a 30 cents net debit to book my profit. This will represent a capture of a little greater than 50% of the premium I collected up front from...
We had a discussion in the All Star Options chatroom yesterday about differences of opinion that got my mind spinning in a very positive way.
Sometimes, we traders might get a little offended when we've done the work to come up with a trade idea and share it with others -- then someone else offers a hot take on why the originator of the idea might be wrong. For some of us, we get momentarily annoyed, then we forget it and move on. For others, the "new information" causes us to abandon our trade thesis all together, sending us back to the drawing board in a state of frustration.
In the worst case, the originator of the idea gets offended, defensive, and perhaps even verbally abusive. And then both sides engage that way and nothing good comes from it.
I'd argue my best response is to meet the counter-intelligence as an opportunity to dig deeper to see if perhaps I missed something? If I find that I have, great! I'm better for it. If not, then I'll just end up feeling better about my opinion.
But the real meta thought here is this: WE WANT PEOPLE TO DISAGREE WITH OUR IDEAS.
Today's trade offers a nice opportunity to add some diversification to my mostly long book.
It's no secret that there has been a lot of weakness that has been masked by the performance of the broader indexes.
We've got a well-diversified business that is showing signs of completing a pretty large top, so it might offer us some alpha on the downside if weakness spreads.
Today's trade is in a $1B company that provides automatic identification solutions to commercial and government customers. Being that this company participates in the Software & IT sector, I expect it to perform well in a market environment where semiconductors are leading the way.
Today's trade is in a stock who's price action is mimicking what their products delivers for its customers -- it's going vertical! How's that for kizmet?
That trade might classify as a "hard trade," but I'll be doing what I can to increase the odds of success in my favor.
This post has been made public after the trade was closed and is no longer active. All information shared is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
As long as the pattern in today's trade holds up high, then we can profit in today's trade.
If it follows through on the upside, all the better and we'll achieve our profit target all the sooner. But as long as it doesn't falter, that's all we need to profit.
Either way, we're leveraging what the options market is offering us to increase our odds of success.
Here's a one-year chart of YPF Sociedad Anonima $YPF:
This is a $17B integrated oil & gas company from Argentina.
In today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza and I discuss the "real" stock market and what's going on that isn't indicative of what the $QQQ or $SPY is telling us.
Are we setting up for a regime change? Or a change of character for this bull market?
Well, one of the stocks most likely to answer this question is Nvidia $NVDA.
Here's a one-year chart of $NVDA:
This isn't the type of setup that often gets me excited when I'm looking for a bullish bet.
However, large caps have been leading the charge into the end of the year. Will $NVDA finally play catchup? If it does, it could potentially cover a lot of ground in a hurry.
If it doesn't, well... this will be a very valuable clue as to how we need to proceed in the coming year.
So we're going to position for the rebound, putting juicy out-of-the-money call options to our advantage, while defining our risk in case $NVDA would rather yield us information than profits.
Here's the Play:
I like buying a $NVDA March 140/180 Bull Call Spread for an approximately $8.00 net debit. This means I'll...