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If it can't rally in this market, what happens if the market pauses or pulls back?
I was looking for a good short exposure candidate to balance out my portfolio a little bit and I came across this bearish idea the team published this week that makes a lot of sense for a quick hit if we get it right.
While the bull market in U.S. Stocks continues to be discovered by all the latecomers here in the States, the strength in International stocks continues unabated. Some of the strongest moves have been happening beyond our shores.
Today's trade leverages cheap options volatility for an attempted run back towards all-time highs and beyond.
Big cap tech has gotten all the attention in this current bull market rally, and deservedly so. There have been some truly massive gains there.
But as we know from history, the lifeblood of sustained bull markets is sector rotation. And we're seeing smaller caps begin to play catch up to their big brothers.
Today's trade is in a software name that has quietly been rallying since getting wrecked after a disappointing earnings report last November.
But with a bullish reversal pattern off those November lows, we feel the time is right for this quiet rally to get loud.
That company is still a thing? I thought the iPhone killed it? ~ JC during The Morning Show on 6/15/23
Yep. Today's trade is a play on a stock in a company we were all kind of surprised still exists, and even more surprising that is doing well!
Upon further digging, we learned the company has handled the pivot away from online maps for car drivers into things like GPS for boats, golfers, and wearables!
We've been talking a lot lately about the number of stocks setting up to play "catch-up" to this bull market that is only just now starting to get the attention it deserves, in spite of it being nearly 8 months old now, by our measures.
Today's trade is in another one of these setups that continue to work for us ($CAT and $IWM are great, recent examples).
I have a feeling there will be a large segment of the trader population that hates this trade. And that is precisely why I think it has a good chance of working.
It's Friday. It's late in the day. I won't waste your time with a long preamble. Let's get right to it.
It feels like whatever items have been holding the broader markets back are falling by the wayside one by one, clearing the path to the next leg higher in this bull market.
And with volatility (as measured by $VIX) making new yearly lows, it's getting more affordable to make a bullish play with simple long call option trades.
I'm continuing with my recent bent of positioning carefully in speculative names that have the potential to rip if the market resolves higher out of this Washington nonsense.
Today's trade is in a name that is showing signs of squeezing higher. It just needs a spark.
It's been a good run for many of our bullish long trades. As such, it wouldn't surprise me if stocks took a bit of a breather soon.
And considering so many stocks we've been tracking are starting to look pretty extended, I'm going to go fishing in the weak stocks pond to find some opportunities for portfolio diversification in the event that stocks go sideways or dip a little bit in the weeks ahead.
One nice thing is the stock market lift this week has really zapped options premiums across the board. So today's trade offers us a somewhat rare opportunity to get responsibly short with long puts.
I'm filing today's trade under the category of "Hard Trades." Not because it's particularly hard to execute or because it's a complicated multi-legged spread. It won't require an excessive amount of margin to get positioned nor is there any risk of unlimited losses.
It's hard because people might look at the trading action of the past few days and think that it's "gone too far" and "I should wait for a pullback."
And traders who think that way may be right.
But here's the thing: sometimes the best trades to get into are the best precisely because they are the "hardest" to pull the trigger on. And that's where our opportunity is. Those of us who fight through the conventional wisdom of average traders and get positioned ahead of the crowd will be lifted later on by those same traders who were "waiting for a pullback" and put an ever-rising bid underneath our stock that fuels our future gains.