The One Comforting Truth

This market's been so easy, right?

You literally had to do nothing, and you've outperformed some of the most sophisticated crypto trading firms on the planet.

By loss realization and institutional contagion, this is the single worst crypto bear market in history.

So, if you're still here with a few dollars to your name, take solace in the fact that you've done a better job at risk management than some of the most intelligent players in the space.

For us, our process has been incredibly simple.

The trend has been down, and we haven't wanted to buy rallies until some long-term bullish shape has been put in.

In recent months, we've been incredibly persistent with our cautious approach while most coins are below their June lows.

Take our equally weighted altcoin index. There's nothing to be done here:

You can pretend it's not that way. You can mold outdated strategies that worked in bullish environments to this current market.

Go ahead, try. Swing at every random breakout or anomalous rally in a bear market.

It's a recipe for failure.

The trend's been down for the longest time. And price has dictated our cautious approach to these markets.

You might believe Bitcoin and crypto are the future. I'm almost certain they'll have a role to play in the financial system sometime down the road.

But we need to deal with facts right now, not beliefs.

The only truth is price.

The moment you lean on narrative over money flow, your risk management comes under threat.

So, for now, we're happy to sit on the sidelines.

Any technician worth their salt has avoided the cryptocurrency asset class for most of 2022.

We're moving into a new year, so maybe this will change.

Who knows.

But what I do know is that money flow will give us the heads-up ahead of time.

It's perhaps the one comforting truth in all this chaos.