A Weak Dollar? Haven’t Seen One in Almost 20 Years.

My uncle told me in 1999 that tech was about to take a nap.

I had no idea what the hell he was talking about. I was too busy riding bikes and planning my next trip to a contest. 

But I’ll never forget the timing of his trades.

He sold all his tech stocks and started buying gold miners, micro caps, and commodities.

It sounded crazy to me at the time. But his entire analysis came down to one thing:

The Dollar.

We have not seen a real weak dollar environment in nearly 20 years.

Yeah, we’ve seen pullbacks—2017-18, late 2020-21—but a sustained downtrend?

I haven’t seen one.

Look at the chart. The last real decline was after the dot-com crash in 2000.

Since the Great Financial Crisis, the playbook was simple:

Strong dollar. Strong bonds.

That was the foundation that the ETF market was built on. There are almost 1000 fixed income ETFs.

Meanwhile, weak dollar trades—commodity ETFs, inflation plays—kept getting wiped out. 

Look at the Cocoa ETF. Got delisted right before a 200% move. 

But cycles shift and currently inflation is sticky. And since 2020, the biggest drag on the commodity supercycle? 

The U.S. Dollar.

Here’s the takeaway:

There are moments in history when stocks underperform, and other assets rip.

From 2000-2008, the S&P 500 compounded at 0.27% per year.
Oil? 30% per year. That’s a 1,000% move over the same stretch.

I don’t know the future. But assuming it’ll look like the past?

That’s how you get smoked.

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