[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

October 4, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

This week, we saw a resumption of weakness in our macro universe, as 70% of our list closed lower, with a median return of -0.70%.
The Volatility Index $VIX was the big winner, closing out the week up more than 19% and registering a fresh 13-week high in the process.
The biggest loser this week was the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ, with a loss of -3.52%.
We saw a 17% drop in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs, from 64% down to 47%.
62% of our list made new four-week lows.
The average asset in our macro universe is now more than 5% below their respective 52-week highs.
However, only 26% of our macro universe closed lower than their lows from last week.
The number of assets on our macro list in bullish momentum regimes finished the week at a fresh year-to-date low, with a reading of 51%.

International Universe:

This week, International Equities experienced more pressure, as 74% of our list closed lower, with a median return of -1.35%.
However, only 18% of our international universe closed below their prior week's lows.
Colombia $GXG was the leader, bucking the trend with a 5.50% gain.
Netherlands $EWN was this week's big loser, dropping a massive -5.60%.
The international universe's percent of assets within 5% of their 52-week highs fell by another 15% this week and is now at just 28%.
The average asset in our international universe is now more than 8% below its 52-week high.
Momentum regimes remain steady from a structural perspective, as 57% of the ETFs on our list are bullish, consistent with last week.
68% of the assets on this list posted new four-week lows, and 31% made 13-week lows, which is the highest reading we've seen this year. Here's a look:
We saw a new all-time high this week from Saudi Arabia $KSA as energy-sensitive countries continue to be where the relative strength is.

US Sector Universe:

Sector universe performance was weak, as 70% of our list closed lower, with a median return of -0.79%.
This week, Small-Cap Energy $PSCE was the big winner, closing with a 9.08% gain.
The biggest loser of the week was Equal-Weight Health Care, which dropped -4.02%.
We saw 57% of our sector list post fresh four-week lows, and we saw 23% close at new 13-week lows.
We saw a 13% drop in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs, from 53% down to 40%.
Despite all these intra-week lows, only 17% of our sector universe closed below their prior week's lows.
The outlook remains stable from a structural perspective, as 60% of our list is still in a bullish momentum regime, down just 4% from last week.

US Industry Universe:

Our Industry universe performance was also negative this week, with 61% of ETFs closing lower, with a median return of -0.82%.
The biggest winner was Natural Gas $FCG, which gained 8.94%.
The biggest loser was Biotechnology $IBB, which dropped -6.78%.
46% of industry groups made fresh four-week lows, while, only 26% made fresh four-week highs.
We saw a bearish reversal from Retail $XRT.
The percentage of our list in bullish momentum regimes actually rose 6% to 67%, due mainly to some overbought readings from energy ETFs.
Only 22% of the assets on our industry list are within 5% of their 52-week highs, representing a 17% drop from last week.
The average asset in our industry universe is now 6.5% below its 52-week high.

That's it for this week's highlights!