Introducing: "The Dow Fab 5 Indicator"
I want to take this strategy to another level today and introduce you to the Dow Fab 5 Index, which consists of just the 5 highest priced stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but equally-weighted. Today, this index has Boeing, UnitedHealth, Goldman Sachs, 3M and Home Depot. Price-wise, these 5 stocks alone represent 1/3 of the entire index.
Just to show you how the rest of the market moves with these 5 stocks, I've overlaid the "Dow Fab 5" with the Russell3000 Index, which represents approximately 98% of all investable assets in the U.S. equities market. Here it is going back to the turn of the century:
Click on charts to zoom in
Here is a closer look at this over the past few years. If we see new highs in the Dow Fab 5, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the rest of the market doesn't follow. We're not looking at it as a leading indicator, but more coincident than anything else:
This is the Dow Fab 5 Index on its own. I see prices consolidating last year's monster gains in a sideways range. This is perfectly normal. What stands out to me is that we're consolidating above support near 1200 based on the 423.6% extension of the 2015-2016 correction, not below it. Also, momentum is in a bullish regime, not getting oversold since early 2016. These are all bullish characteristics that suggest a resumption in trend is quickly approaching:
An upside resolution should be expected here, because consolidations historically tend to resolve themselves in the direction of the underlying trend, which in this case is obviously up. Price breaking down below 1200 again in the Dow Fab 5 Index and momentum reaching oversold conditions would likely mean this conclusion is wrong and a more defensive approach is more appropriate. But in my opinion, this is the lower probability outcome. I think we're heading to 1550 in the Dow Fab 5 Index, which points to much higher stock price in the United States this year.
That's how we're positioned.
Tell me what you think!
JC