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[Premium] Midcap Base Breakouts To Watch For

May 17, 2018

As Technicians we like to use the phrase "the bigger the base, the higher in space" when talking about breakouts from consolidations. Long periods of indecisive price action build a lot of potential energy that is then released once a stock breaks out of its range. This applies to any asset class on any timeframe because the psychology behind the pattern is exactly the same. The weight of the evidence continues to suggest we want to be long equities, so I've taken a look through the Nifty Midcap 150 and identified some of the best bases that are either breaking out or look poised to over the intermediate-term.

First up is Akzo Nobel India, which has been in a clear uptrend since late 2013. It met our price target near 1,990 in March 2017 and has been consolidating since. We want to be long on a breakout above 1,990 and taking profits near 2,770.

Click on chart to zoom in.

Bata India Ltd. broke out of a 3-year base last September, retested the breakout area, and has continued higher. As long as prices are above 700 we want to be buying weakness and taking profits near 895, at which point we'll reevaluate.

Berger Paints has been basing near all-time highs since September of 2016 and is now attempting a breakout to the upside. We want to be long the stock above 275 and taking profits near 338, at which point it becomes our new risk management level for our secondary price target of 437.

Bharat Forge built a 2.5-year base and broke out last November. We want to be long above 680 with an initial price target near 890.

EIH Ltd. broke out of a 10-year base in January and reached our initial price target near 220. This breakout represents the start of a new uptrend, so as long as we're above 150 we want to be long and taking profits near 220. If we get above 220, that becomes our level for risk-management purposes and our secondary price target near 330 comes into focus.

Indian Hotels finally broke out decisively from a 10-year base. We want to be long the stock as long as its above 115 and taking profits near 166. Again, like EIH Ltd., this breakout represents a new long-term uptrend, so if/when prices do break above 166 that becomes our next risk-management level and our secondary target of 250 comes into focus.

IRB Infrastructure is another stock that's done absolutely nothing for 10 years. We want to be buying a breakout above 290 and taking profits near 356, with a secondary price target near 470.

Sanofi India Ltd. broke out of a 2-year base this past January and quickly met our price target near 5,190. This stock remains in a long-term uptrend, so we want to be buying a breakout above 5,190 and taking profits near 6,000.

TATA Communications broke out of an 8-year base in September of 2016 and has been consolidating since. As long as prices are above 585, we want to be long and taking profits near 862, with a secondary price target near 1,308.

Thermax has been consolidating since early 2015 and is now back at the top of its range after a failed breakout in January. We want to be buying a breakout above 1,315 and taking profits near 1,700, with a secondary price target near 2,320.

Thomas Cook broke out of a 3-year base this past March, so we want to be buying weakness int he stock as long as it's above 255. Our primary price target is 313 and our secondary target is up near 405.

United Breweries Ltd. hasn't done anything since mid-2011 and is back toward the top of its range. It continues to test resistance near 1,225. The more times a level is tested the more likely it is to break, so we want to be watching this name and buying a breakout above 1,225 and taking profits near 1,555.

Wabco India Ltd. broke out of a 2.5-year base in March. We want to be buying weakness in this stock as long as it's above 7,440 and taking profits near 9,100.

The Bottom Line: These 13 names from a variety of sectors/industries have been consolidating for years and are starting new moves to the upside, presenting asymmetric reward/risk on the long side. The risk remains well defined in case we're wrong, but the weight of the evidence suggests that these are strong intermediate and long-term trends we want to be involved in. Like our other posts, we continue to focus on stocks above rising 200-period moving averages and with momentum in a bullish range. By sticking with the stocks exhibiting these characteristics, we can make the most of the current bullish environment.

I've also performed this exercise with the Nifty Smallcap 250 for premium members, which you can access by clicking here.

Allstarcharts Team

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