No One Has A Clue Where Rates Are Going

Something I've been noticing more and more lately is that nobody knows where rates are going or when they may be going there. I've asked this question to some of the smartest people I know. A few weeks ago, I even questioned Howard Marks, CEO of Oaktree Capital. The guy who runs a publicly traded company specializing in managing bond portfolios had absolutely no idea. And he was more than willing to admit that.

This sort of thing has been on my mind for a while but I hadn't seen the sentiment plotted on a chart in some time. JP Morgan's Treasury Bond Client survey shows on paper exactly what I'm hearing out there. 60% of all those surveyed were on the fence and neutral on interest rates, 23% were bullish and just 17% were bearish. In other words, no one has any clue where rates are going!

The blue line shows the 10-year yield and the red line represents the % bulls minus the % bears:

I think it's pretty obvious that the Fed has control here and we have no idea when rates are actually going to rise, or if they've even bottomed yet. But I thought it was interesting to see the updated sentiment plotted on a chart.

What are you guys thinking?

Source:

Technicals on Tens (PragmaticCaptialism)

Tags: $ZNF $TNX