Where Did All The Bulls Go?
The greatest trick the Bull Market ever pulled was convincing the world it didn't exist.
Here we are three years into this bull market in stocks and the bulls are non-existent. Literally. With the S&P500 just 2% away from new 52-week highs, this week's sentiment survey shows the least amount of bulls since September of last year.
Do you remember what happened after September of last year? Stocks exploded higher for the next six months = 30% for the S&P500 & 40% for the Russell2000.Will that happen again? I guess we'll see. But I do know this much: there's a much higher likelihood that a new rally can get going with the current lack of bulls as opposed to an environment where everyone is already bullish.
Here are the latest survey results:
And like we've been saying, I think the catalyst will have to be the rotation into more offensive sectors. Bank of America/Merrill Technician Mary Ann Bartels told Bloomberg this morning:
"Stocks driven by the economy, including materials, energy and industrial shares, have fallen out of favor, pointing to a potential “deeper pullback” for the U.S. equity market, she said.
“The market is still staying away from commodity-sensitive cyclicals,” Bartels said. “As long as that continues, that means the market is more likely to go down.”
I couldn't agree more. We discussed this earlier in the week and I think it's something important to watch. A good friend of mine recently called me a "Rotationista". I hadn't heard that before, but I'll take that as a compliment I suppose. I do want to see rotation into some of these areas: Energy, Materials, and Industrials. And it feels like everyone hates these sectors. So just like the sentiment surveys, we'll put our contrarian hats on and look at this lack of confidence as a good thing.
What do you guys think?
Sources:
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey (4/25/12 AAII)
Bullish Sentiment Drops to Lowest Levels Since September (Bespoke)
Bartels Sees S&P at Risk for 10% Drop (Bloomberg)
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