The folks at CitiFX are out with their annual 12 charts of Christmas. In their view, the intention of these charts is to establish a ‘starting point’ for views as we head into 2013. There’s a lot of juice in this presentation. Here are a few of the bullet points via zerohedge:
What do we believe for 2013?
- Initial claims will follow a similar path to that seen in the 1970s and begin to move higher in 2013. This will be the first indication that further trouble lies ahead. The 2’s – 5’s curve will eventually move higher also but not before posting one last move down.
- U.S. 10 year yields will have one final push down towards 1%-1.2% at which point they could bounce up like a “beach ball let go underwater”.
- EURUSD will fall towards 1.20 in Q1 2013 and possibly even 1.10-15 with parity a real possibility in 2 years. We also expect a rally on the USD Index this year of about 15% which suggests that this move will be predominately driven by EURUSD (57.6% of the USD-Index).
- USDJPY will eventually move higher as the interest rate dynamic kicks in and we would not be surprised to see a move into the low 90s over the course of the year.
- We expect Gold to move to $2,055 -$2,060 in the first quarter of 2013 a and ultimately a rally towards $2,400 in 2013.
- Crude Oil (Brent) should rally to the 2011/2012 highs around $125 and possibly move to all time highs in 2013.
- The DJIA will drop over 20% towards the 10,000-10,500 area.
A couple of the charts that I found interesting (click to embiggen):
Tags: $USDX $DX_F $BNO $SPX $SPY $GC_F $GLD